Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Lancaster Environment Centre

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Ecology and Conservation

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https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
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Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. / Sullivan, M.J.P.; Lewis, S.L.; Affum-Baffoe, K. et al.
In: Science, Vol. 368, No. 6493, 22.05.2020, p. 869-874.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Sullivan, MJP, Lewis, SL, Affum-Baffoe, K, Castilho, C, Costa, F, Sanchez, AC, Ewango, CEN, Hubau, W, Marimon, B, Monteagudo-Mendoza, A, Qie, L, Sonké, B, Martinez, RV, Baker, TR, Brienen, RJW, Feldpausch, TR, Galbraith, D, Gloor, M, Malhi, Y, Aiba, S-I, Alexiades, MN, Almeida, EC, de Oliveira, EA, Dávila, EÁ, Loayza, PA, Andrade, A, Vieira, SA, Aragão, LEOC, Araujo-Murakami, A, Arets, EJMM, Arroyo, L, Ashton, P, Aymard C, G, Baccaro, FB, Banin, LF, Baraloto, C, Camargo, PB, Barlow, J, Barroso, J, Bastin, J-F, Batterman, SA, Beeckman, H, Begne, SK, Bennett, AC, Berenguer, E, Berry, N, Blanc, L, Boeckx, P, Bogaert, J, Bonal, D, Bongers, F, Bradford, M, Brearley, FQ, Brncic, T, Brown, F, Burban, B, Camargo, JL, Castro, W, Céron, C, Ribeiro, SC, Moscoso, VC, Chave, J, Chezeaux, E, Clark, CJ, de Souza, FC, Collins, M, Comiskey, JA, Valverde, FC, Medina, MC, da Costa, L, Dančák, M, Dargie, GC, Davies, S, Cardozo, ND, de Haulleville, T, de Medeiros, MB, Del Aguila Pasquel, J, Derroire, G, Di Fiore, A, Doucet, J-L, Dourdain, A, Droissant, V, Duque, LF, Ekoungoulou, R, Elias, F, Erwin, T, Esquivel-Muelbert, A, Fauset, S, Ferreira, J, Llampazo, GF, Foli, E, Ford, A, Gilpin, M, Hall, JS, Hamer, KC, Hamilton, AC, Harris, DJ, Hart, TB, Hédl, R, Herault, B, Herrera, R, Higuchi, N, Hladik, A, Coronado, EH, Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, I, Huasco, WH, Jeffery, KJ, Jimenez-Rojas, E, Kalamandeen, M, Djuikouo, MNK, Kearsley, E, Umetsu, RK, Kho, LK, Killeen, T, Kitayama, K, Klitgaard, B, Koch, A, Labrière, N, Laurance, W, Laurance, S, Leal, ME, Levesley, A, Lima, AJN, Lisingo, J, Lopes, AP, Lopez-Gonzalez, G, Lovejoy, T, Lovett, JC, Lowe, R, Magnusson, WE, Malumbres-Olarte, J, Manzatto, ÂG, Marimon B.H., J, Marshall, AR, Marthews, T, de Almeida Reis, SM, Maycock, C, Melgaço, K, Mendoza, C, Metali, F, Mihindou, V, Milliken, W, Mitchard, ETA, Morandi, PS, Mossman, HL, Nagy, L, Nascimento, H, Neill, D, Nilus, R, Vargas, PN, Palacios, W, Camacho, NP, Peacock, J, Pendry, C, Peñuela Mora, MC, Pickavance, GC, Pipoly, J, Pitman, N, Playfair, M, Poorter, L, Poulsen, JR, Poulsen, AD, Preziosi, R, Prieto, A, Primack, RB, Ramírez-Angulo, H, Reitsma, J, Réjou-Méchain, M, Correa, ZR, de Sousa, TR, Bayona, LR, Roopsind, A, Rudas, A, Rutishauser, E, Abu Salim, K, Salomão, RP, Schietti, J, Sheil, D, Silva, RC, Espejo, JS, Valeria, CS, Silveira, M, Simo-Droissart, M, Simon, MF, Singh, J, Soto Shareva, YC, Stahl, C, Stropp, J, Sukri, R, Sunderland, T, Svátek, M, Swaine, MD, Swamy, V, Taedoumg, H, Talbot, J, Taplin, J, Taylor, D, Ter Steege, H, Terborgh, J, Thomas, R, Thomas, SC, Torres-Lezama, A, Umunay, P, Gamarra, LV, van der Heijden, G, van der Hout, P, van der Meer, P, van Nieuwstadt, M, Verbeeck, H, Vernimmen, R, Vicentini, A, Vieira, ICG, Torre, EV, Vleminckx, J, Vos, V, Wang, O, White, LJT, Willcock, S, Woods, JT, Wortel, V, Young, K, Zagt, R, Zemagho, L, Zuidema, PA, Zwerts, JA & Phillips, OL 2020, 'Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests', Science, vol. 368, no. 6493, pp. 869-874. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578

APA

Sullivan, M. J. P., Lewis, S. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Costa, F., Sanchez, A. C., Ewango, C. E. N., Hubau, W., Marimon, B., Monteagudo-Mendoza, A., Qie, L., Sonké, B., Martinez, R. V., Baker, T. R., Brienen, R. J. W., Feldpausch, T. R., Galbraith, D., Gloor, M., Malhi, Y., ... Phillips, O. L. (2020). Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science, 368(6493), 869-874. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578

Vancouver

Sullivan MJP, Lewis SL, Affum-Baffoe K, Castilho C, Costa F, Sanchez AC et al. Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science. 2020 May 22;368(6493):869-874. doi: 10.1126/science.aaw7578

Author

Sullivan, M.J.P. ; Lewis, S.L. ; Affum-Baffoe, K. et al. / Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. In: Science. 2020 ; Vol. 368, No. 6493. pp. 869-874.

Bibtex

@article{37def6ce634541ab9fdadd73885152dc,

title = "Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests",

abstract = "The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate. ",

author = "M.J.P. Sullivan and S.L. Lewis and K. Affum-Baffoe and C. Castilho and F. Costa and A.C. Sanchez and C.E.N. Ewango and W. Hubau and B. Marimon and A. Monteagudo-Mendoza and L. Qie and B. Sonk{\'e} and R.V. Martinez and T.R. Baker and R.J.W. Brienen and T.R. Feldpausch and D. Galbraith and M. Gloor and Y. Malhi and S.-I. Aiba and M.N. Alexiades and E.C. Almeida and {de Oliveira}, E.A. and E.{\'A}. D{\'a}vila and P.A. Loayza and A. Andrade and S.A. Vieira and L.E.O.C. Arag{\~a}o and A. Araujo-Murakami and E.J.M.M. Arets and L. Arroyo and P. Ashton and {Aymard C}, G. and F.B. Baccaro and L.F. Banin and C. Baraloto and P.B. Camargo and J. Barlow and J. Barroso and J.-F. Bastin and S.A. Batterman and H. Beeckman and S.K. Begne and A.C. Bennett and E. Berenguer and N. Berry and L. Blanc and P. Boeckx and J. Bogaert and D. Bonal and F. Bongers and M. Bradford and F.Q. Brearley and T. Brncic and F. Brown and B. Burban and J.L. Camargo and W. Castro and C. C{\'e}ron and S.C. Ribeiro and V.C. Moscoso and J. Chave and E. Chezeaux and C.J. Clark and {de Souza}, F.C. and M. Collins and J.A. Comiskey and F.C. Valverde and M.C. Medina and {da Costa}, L. and M. Dan{\v c}{\'a}k and G.C. Dargie and S. Davies and N.D. Cardozo and {de Haulleville}, T. and {de Medeiros}, M.B. and {Del Aguila Pasquel}, J. and G. Derroire and {Di Fiore}, A. and J.-L. Doucet and A. Dourdain and V. Droissant and L.F. Duque and R. Ekoungoulou and F. Elias and T. Erwin and A. Esquivel-Muelbert and S. Fauset and J. Ferreira and G.F. Llampazo and E. Foli and A. Ford and M. Gilpin and J.S. Hall and K.C. Hamer and A.C. Hamilton and D.J. Harris and T.B. Hart and R. H{\'e}dl and B. Herault and R. Herrera and N. Higuchi and A. Hladik and E.H. Coronado and I. Huamantupa-Chuquimaco and W.H. Huasco and K.J. Jeffery and E. Jimenez-Rojas and M. Kalamandeen and M.N.K. Djuikouo and E. Kearsley and R.K. Umetsu and L.K. Kho and T. Killeen and K. Kitayama and B. Klitgaard and A. Koch and N. Labri{\`e}re and W. Laurance and S. Laurance and M.E. Leal and A. Levesley and A.J.N. Lima and J. Lisingo and A.P. Lopes and G. Lopez-Gonzalez and T. Lovejoy and J.C. Lovett and R. Lowe and W.E. Magnusson and J. Malumbres-Olarte and {\^A}G. Manzatto and {Marimon B.H.}, Jr and A.R. Marshall and T. Marthews and {de Almeida Reis}, S.M. and C. Maycock and K. Melga{\c c}o and C. Mendoza and F. Metali and V. Mihindou and W. Milliken and E.T.A. Mitchard and P.S. Morandi and H.L. Mossman and L. Nagy and H. Nascimento and D. Neill and R. Nilus and P.N. Vargas and W. Palacios and N.P. Camacho and J. Peacock and C. Pendry and {Pe{\~n}uela Mora}, M.C. and G.C. Pickavance and J. Pipoly and N. Pitman and M. Playfair and L. Poorter and J.R. Poulsen and A.D. Poulsen and R. Preziosi and A. Prieto and R.B. Primack and H. Ram{\'i}rez-Angulo and J. Reitsma and M. R{\'e}jou-M{\'e}chain and Z.R. Correa and {de Sousa}, T.R. and L.R. Bayona and A. Roopsind and A. Rudas and E. Rutishauser and {Abu Salim}, K. and R.P. Salom{\~a}o and J. Schietti and D. Sheil and R.C. Silva and J.S. Espejo and C.S. Valeria and M. Silveira and M. Simo-Droissart and M.F. Simon and J. Singh and {Soto Shareva}, Y.C. and C. Stahl and J. Stropp and R. Sukri and T. Sunderland and M. Sv{\'a}tek and M.D. Swaine and V. Swamy and H. Taedoumg and J. Talbot and J. Taplin and D. Taylor and {Ter Steege}, H. and J. Terborgh and R. Thomas and S.C. Thomas and A. Torres-Lezama and P. Umunay and L.V. Gamarra and {van der Heijden}, G. and {van der Hout}, P. and {van der Meer}, P. and {van Nieuwstadt}, M. and H. Verbeeck and R. Vernimmen and A. Vicentini and I.C.G. Vieira and E.V. Torre and J. Vleminckx and V. Vos and O. Wang and L.J.T. White and S. Willcock and J.T. Woods and V. Wortel and K. Young and R. Zagt and L. Zemagho and P.A. Zuidema and J.A. Zwerts and O.L. Phillips",

note = "Copyright {\textcopyright} 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works http://www.sciencemag.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse This is an article distributed under the terms of the Science Journals Default License.",

year = "2020",

month = may,

day = "22",

doi = "10.1126/science.aaw7578",

language = "English",

volume = "368",

pages = "869--874",

journal = "Science",

issn = "1095-9203",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6493",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

AU - Sullivan, M.J.P.

AU - Lewis, S.L.

AU - Affum-Baffoe, K.

AU - Castilho, C.

AU - Costa, F.

AU - Sanchez, A.C.

AU - Ewango, C.E.N.

AU - Hubau, W.

AU - Marimon, B.

AU - Monteagudo-Mendoza, A.

AU - Qie, L.

AU - Sonké, B.

AU - Martinez, R.V.

AU - Baker, T.R.

AU - Brienen, R.J.W.

AU - Feldpausch, T.R.

AU - Galbraith, D.

AU - Gloor, M.

AU - Malhi, Y.

AU - Aiba, S.-I.

AU - Alexiades, M.N.

AU - Almeida, E.C.

AU - de Oliveira, E.A.

AU - Dávila, E.Á.

AU - Loayza, P.A.

AU - Andrade, A.

AU - Vieira, S.A.

AU - Aragão, L.E.O.C.

AU - Araujo-Murakami, A.

AU - Arets, E.J.M.M.

AU - Arroyo, L.

AU - Ashton, P.

AU - Aymard C, G.

AU - Baccaro, F.B.

AU - Banin, L.F.

AU - Baraloto, C.

AU - Camargo, P.B.

AU - Barlow, J.

AU - Barroso, J.

AU - Bastin, J.-F.

AU - Batterman, S.A.

AU - Beeckman, H.

AU - Begne, S.K.

AU - Bennett, A.C.

AU - Berenguer, E.

AU - Berry, N.

AU - Blanc, L.

AU - Boeckx, P.

AU - Bogaert, J.

AU - Bonal, D.

AU - Bongers, F.

AU - Bradford, M.

AU - Brearley, F.Q.

AU - Brncic, T.

AU - Brown, F.

AU - Burban, B.

AU - Camargo, J.L.

AU - Castro, W.

AU - Céron, C.

AU - Ribeiro, S.C.

AU - Moscoso, V.C.

AU - Chave, J.

AU - Chezeaux, E.

AU - Clark, C.J.

AU - de Souza, F.C.

AU - Collins, M.

AU - Comiskey, J.A.

AU - Valverde, F.C.

AU - Medina, M.C.

AU - da Costa, L.

AU - Dančák, M.

AU - Dargie, G.C.

AU - Davies, S.

AU - Cardozo, N.D.

AU - de Haulleville, T.

AU - de Medeiros, M.B.

AU - Del Aguila Pasquel, J.

AU - Derroire, G.

AU - Di Fiore, A.

AU - Doucet, J.-L.

AU - Dourdain, A.

AU - Droissant, V.

AU - Duque, L.F.

AU - Ekoungoulou, R.

AU - Elias, F.

AU - Erwin, T.

AU - Esquivel-Muelbert, A.

AU - Fauset, S.

AU - Ferreira, J.

AU - Llampazo, G.F.

AU - Foli, E.

AU - Ford, A.

AU - Gilpin, M.

AU - Hall, J.S.

AU - Hamer, K.C.

AU - Hamilton, A.C.

AU - Harris, D.J.

AU - Hart, T.B.

AU - Hédl, R.

AU - Herault, B.

AU - Herrera, R.

AU - Higuchi, N.

AU - Hladik, A.

AU - Coronado, E.H.

AU - Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, I.

AU - Huasco, W.H.

AU - Jeffery, K.J.

AU - Jimenez-Rojas, E.

AU - Kalamandeen, M.

AU - Djuikouo, M.N.K.

AU - Kearsley, E.

AU - Umetsu, R.K.

AU - Kho, L.K.

AU - Killeen, T.

AU - Kitayama, K.

AU - Klitgaard, B.

AU - Koch, A.

AU - Labrière, N.

AU - Laurance, W.

AU - Laurance, S.

AU - Leal, M.E.

AU - Levesley, A.

AU - Lima, A.J.N.

AU - Lisingo, J.

AU - Lopes, A.P.

AU - Lopez-Gonzalez, G.

AU - Lovejoy, T.

AU - Lovett, J.C.

AU - Lowe, R.

AU - Magnusson, W.E.

AU - Malumbres-Olarte, J.

AU - Manzatto, ÂG.

AU - Marimon B.H., Jr

AU - Marshall, A.R.

AU - Marthews, T.

AU - de Almeida Reis, S.M.

AU - Maycock, C.

AU - Melgaço, K.

AU - Mendoza, C.

AU - Metali, F.

AU - Mihindou, V.

AU - Milliken, W.

AU - Mitchard, E.T.A.

AU - Morandi, P.S.

AU - Mossman, H.L.

AU - Nagy, L.

AU - Nascimento, H.

AU - Neill, D.

AU - Nilus, R.

AU - Vargas, P.N.

AU - Palacios, W.

AU - Camacho, N.P.

AU - Peacock, J.

AU - Pendry, C.

AU - Peñuela Mora, M.C.

AU - Pickavance, G.C.

AU - Pipoly, J.

AU - Pitman, N.

AU - Playfair, M.

AU - Poorter, L.

AU - Poulsen, J.R.

AU - Poulsen, A.D.

AU - Preziosi, R.

AU - Prieto, A.

AU - Primack, R.B.

AU - Ramírez-Angulo, H.

AU - Reitsma, J.

AU - Réjou-Méchain, M.

AU - Correa, Z.R.

AU - de Sousa, T.R.

AU - Bayona, L.R.

AU - Roopsind, A.

AU - Rudas, A.

AU - Rutishauser, E.

AU - Abu Salim, K.

AU - Salomão, R.P.

AU - Schietti, J.

AU - Sheil, D.

AU - Silva, R.C.

AU - Espejo, J.S.

AU - Valeria, C.S.

AU - Silveira, M.

AU - Simo-Droissart, M.

AU - Simon, M.F.

AU - Singh, J.

AU - Soto Shareva, Y.C.

AU - Stahl, C.

AU - Stropp, J.

AU - Sukri, R.

AU - Sunderland, T.

AU - Svátek, M.

AU - Swaine, M.D.

AU - Swamy, V.

AU - Taedoumg, H.

AU - Talbot, J.

AU - Taplin, J.

AU - Taylor, D.

AU - Ter Steege, H.

AU - Terborgh, J.

AU - Thomas, R.

AU - Thomas, S.C.

AU - Torres-Lezama, A.

AU - Umunay, P.

AU - Gamarra, L.V.

AU - van der Heijden, G.

AU - van der Hout, P.

AU - van der Meer, P.

AU - van Nieuwstadt, M.

AU - Verbeeck, H.

AU - Vernimmen, R.

AU - Vicentini, A.

AU - Vieira, I.C.G.

AU - Torre, E.V.

AU - Vleminckx, J.

AU - Vos, V.

AU - Wang, O.

AU - White, L.J.T.

AU - Willcock, S.

AU - Woods, J.T.

AU - Wortel, V.

AU - Young, K.

AU - Zagt, R.

AU - Zemagho, L.

AU - Zuidema, P.A.

AU - Zwerts, J.A.

AU - Phillips, O.L.

N1 - Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works http://www.sciencemag.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse This is an article distributed under the terms of the Science Journals Default License.

PY - 2020/5/22

Y1 - 2020/5/22

N2 - The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

AB - The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

U2 - 10.1126/science.aaw7578

DO - 10.1126/science.aaw7578

M3 - Journal article

VL - 368

SP - 869

EP - 874

JO - Science

JF - Science

SN - 1095-9203

IS - 6493

ER -

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