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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
AU - Perry, C
AU - Alvarez-Filip, L
AU - Graham, Nicholas Anthony James
AU - Mumby, PJ
AU - Wilson, SK
AU - Kench, PS
AU - Manzello, DP
AU - Morgan, KM
AU - Slangen, ABA
AU - Thomson, DP
AU - Janchowski-Hartley, F
AU - Smithers, SG
AU - Steneck, RS
AU - Carlton, R
AU - Edinger, EE
AU - Enochs, IC
AU - Estrada-Saldivar, N
AU - Haywood, MDE
AU - Kolodziej, G
AU - Murphy, GN
AU - Perez-Cervantes, E
AU - Suchley, A
AU - Valentino, L
AU - Boenish, R
AU - Wilson, M
AU - Macdonald, C
N1 - The Author's Accepted Manuscript (the accepted version of the manuscript as submitted by the author) may only be posted 6 months after the paper is published, consistent with our self-archiving embargo. Please note that the Author’s Accepted Manuscript may not be released under a Creative Commons license. For Nature Research Terms of Reuse of archived manuscripts please see: http://www.nature.com/authors/policies/license.html#terms
PY - 2018/6/14
Y1 - 2018/6/14
N2 - Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.
AB - Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.
U2 - 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z
DO - 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z
M3 - Journal article
VL - 558
SP - 396
EP - 400
JO - Nature
JF - Nature
SN - 0028-0836
ER -