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    Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in International Journal of Remote Sensing on 03/07/2018 available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/01431161.2018.1479797

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Major trends in the land surface phenology (LSP) of Africa, controlling for land cover change

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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>2018
<mark>Journal</mark>International Journal of Remote Sensing
Issue number22
Volume39
Number of pages16
Pages (from-to)8060-8075
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date3/07/18
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Monitoring land surface phenology (LSP) trends is important in understanding how both climatic and non-climatic factors influence vegetation growth and dynamics. Controlling for land-cover changes in these analyses has been undertaken only rarely, especially in poorly studied regions like Africa. Using regression models and controlling for land-cover changes, this study estimated LSP trends for Africa from the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from 500 m surface reflectance Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MOD09A1), for the period from 2001 to 2015. Overall end of season showed slightly more pixels with significant trends (12.9% of pixels) than start of season (11.56% of pixels) and length of season (LOS) (5.72% of pixels), leading generally to more ‘longer season’ LOS trends. Importantly, LSP trends that were not affected by land-cover changes were distinguished from those that were influenced by land-cover changes such as to map LSP changes that have occurred within stable land-cover classes and which might, therefore, be reasonably associated with climate changes through time. As expected, greater slope magnitudes were observed more frequently for pixels with land-cover changes compared to those without, indicating the importance of controlling for land cover. Consequently, we suggest that future analyses of LSP trends should control for land-cover changes such as to isolate LSP trends that are solely climate-driven and/or those influenced by other anthropogenic activities or a combination of both.

Bibliographic note

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in International Journal of Remote Sensing on 03/07/2018 available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/01431161.2018.1479797