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Mathematical modelling and control of African animal trypanosomosis with interacting populations in West Africa-Could biting flies be important in main taining the disease endemicity?

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  • P.O. Odeniran
  • A.A. Onifade
  • E.T. MacLeod
  • I.O. Ademola
  • S. Alderton
  • S.C. Welburn
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Article numbere0242435
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>20/11/2020
<mark>Journal</mark>PLoS One
Issue number11
Volume15
Number of pages29
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is transmitted cyclically by tsetse flies and mechanically by biting flies (tabanids and stomoxyines) in West Africa. AAT caused by Trypanosoma congolense, T. vivax and T. brucei brucei is a major threat to the cattle industry. A mathematical model involving three vertebrate hosts (cattle, small ruminants and wildlife) and three vector flies (Tsetse flies, tabanids and stomoxyines) was described to identify elimination strategies. The basic reproduction number (R0) was obtained with respect to the growth rate of infected wildlife (reservoir hosts) present around the susceptible population using a next generation matrix technique. With the aid of suitable Lyapunov functions, stability analyses of disease-free and endemic equilibria were established. Simulation of the predictive model was presented by solving the system of ordinary differential equations to explore the behaviour of the model. An operational area in southwest Nigeria was simulated using generated pertinent data. The R0 <1 in the formulated model indicates the elimination of AAT. The comprehensive use of insecticide treated targets and insecticide treated cattle (ITT/ITC) affected the feeding tsetse and other biting flies resulting in R0 <1. The insecticide type, application timing and method, expertise and environmental conditions could affect the model stability. In areas with abundant biting flies and no tsetse flies, T. vivax showed R0 > 1 when infected wildlife hosts were present. High tsetse populations revealed R0