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Metamodeling for cycle time-throughput-product mix surfaces using progressive model fitting

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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>2011
<mark>Journal</mark>Production Planning and Control
Issue number1
Volume22
Number of pages19
Pages (from-to)50-68
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

A simulation-based methodology is proposed to map the mean of steady-state cycle time (CT) as a function of throughput (TH) and product mix (PM) for manufacturing systems. Nonlinear regression models motivated by queueing analysis are assumed for the underlying response surface. To ensure efficiency and control estimation error, simulation experiments are built up sequentially using a multi-stage procedure to collect data for fitting the models. The resulting response surface is able to provide a CT estimate for any TH and any PM, and thus allows the decision maker to instantly investigate options and trade offs regarding their production planning.