Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Methodological Framework for Air Travel Demand Forecasting
AU - Karlaftis, Matthew G.
AU - Zografos, Konstantinos
AU - Papastavrou, Jason D.
AU - Charnes, John M.
PY - 1996/3
Y1 - 1996/3
N2 - Air-transport demand forecasting constitutes an important determinant of airport planning, design, and operations. Errors in forecasting can be very costly. Underestimating demand may lead to increased congestion, delay, and inadequate airport facilities. Overestimating demand may also create serious economic problems for airport authorities. It is, therefore, very important for airport planners to develop reliable forecasting models and to understand possible limitations in the forecasting accuracy of these models. The objective of this paper is to examine the predicting ability and forecasting accuracy of air-travel demand models. In particular, an analytical framework for developing econometric models is presented and postfact analysis is used to test the accuracy of the models. Statistical data describing air-travel demand patterns for two major international airports, the Frankfurt and the Miami International Airports, are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models. In addition, the effect of external factors such as the deregulation of the air-transport industry is examined. The results suggest that simple models with few independent variables perform as well;Is more complicated and costly models, and that external factors have a pronounced effect on air-travel demand.
AB - Air-transport demand forecasting constitutes an important determinant of airport planning, design, and operations. Errors in forecasting can be very costly. Underestimating demand may lead to increased congestion, delay, and inadequate airport facilities. Overestimating demand may also create serious economic problems for airport authorities. It is, therefore, very important for airport planners to develop reliable forecasting models and to understand possible limitations in the forecasting accuracy of these models. The objective of this paper is to examine the predicting ability and forecasting accuracy of air-travel demand models. In particular, an analytical framework for developing econometric models is presented and postfact analysis is used to test the accuracy of the models. Statistical data describing air-travel demand patterns for two major international airports, the Frankfurt and the Miami International Airports, are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models. In addition, the effect of external factors such as the deregulation of the air-transport industry is examined. The results suggest that simple models with few independent variables perform as well;Is more complicated and costly models, and that external factors have a pronounced effect on air-travel demand.
U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1996)122:2(96)
DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1996)122:2(96)
M3 - Journal article
VL - 122
SP - 96
EP - 104
JO - Journal of Transportation Engineering
JF - Journal of Transportation Engineering
SN - 0733-947X
IS - 2
ER -