Final published version
Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter
Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Chapter
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TY - CHAP
T1 - Model and data limitations
T2 - The sources and implications of epistemic uncertainty
AU - Rougier, J. C.
AU - Beven, K. J.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - Chapter 2 focused entirely on aleatory uncertainty. This is the uncertainty that arises out of the randomness of the hazard itself, and also, possibly, out of the responses to the hazard outcome. That chapter chased this uncertainty through the footprint function and a loss operator to arrive at an exceedance probability (EP) curve. Such a structured approach (e.g. as opposed to a purely statistical approach) was motivated by the need to evaluate different interventions for choosing between different actions; and by the possibility of non-stationarity in the boundary conditions on policy-relevant timescales measured in decades. Different risk managers will have different loss operators, and hence different EP curves. Likewise, the same risk manager will have different EP curves for different actions. A very simple summary statistic of an EP curve is the area underneath it, which corresponds to the expected loss (‘expectation’ taken in the mathematical sense), which is defined to be the risk.
AB - Chapter 2 focused entirely on aleatory uncertainty. This is the uncertainty that arises out of the randomness of the hazard itself, and also, possibly, out of the responses to the hazard outcome. That chapter chased this uncertainty through the footprint function and a loss operator to arrive at an exceedance probability (EP) curve. Such a structured approach (e.g. as opposed to a purely statistical approach) was motivated by the need to evaluate different interventions for choosing between different actions; and by the possibility of non-stationarity in the boundary conditions on policy-relevant timescales measured in decades. Different risk managers will have different loss operators, and hence different EP curves. Likewise, the same risk manager will have different EP curves for different actions. A very simple summary statistic of an EP curve is the area underneath it, which corresponds to the expected loss (‘expectation’ taken in the mathematical sense), which is defined to be the risk.
U2 - 10.1017/CBO9781139047562.004
DO - 10.1017/CBO9781139047562.004
M3 - Chapter
AN - SCOPUS:84893328764
SN - 9781107006195
SP - 40
EP - 63
BT - Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards
PB - Cambridge University Press
CY - Cambridge
ER -