Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Model-based imputation of missing data from the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System (122 CMRS)
AU - Moraga, P.
AU - Ozonoff, A.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - National estimates of the all-cause and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality burden derived from U.S. influenza surveillance data treat all missing or unreported values as zero counts. The effect of this methodological decision is to undercount influenza deaths, thus biasing estimates downward and producing underestimates of the true mortality burden. In this paper, a regression-based procedure is proposed to impute missing values and thus produce a more accurate estimate of mortality. Several model specifications are considered and evaluated to predict weekly death counts by city, calendar week, calendar year and age group. Revised all-cause, P&I and excess mortality estimates are calculated by imputing the missing data. The impact of the treatment of unreported mortality data on national estimates is evaluated by comparing the estimates obtained using data with and without imputation. This comparison reflects some differences in mortality burden, excess deaths, and trends over time. The model presented is a useful approach to impute missing counts and improve inference in situations with modest occurrence of missing data.
AB - National estimates of the all-cause and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality burden derived from U.S. influenza surveillance data treat all missing or unreported values as zero counts. The effect of this methodological decision is to undercount influenza deaths, thus biasing estimates downward and producing underestimates of the true mortality burden. In this paper, a regression-based procedure is proposed to impute missing values and thus produce a more accurate estimate of mortality. Several model specifications are considered and evaluated to predict weekly death counts by city, calendar week, calendar year and age group. Revised all-cause, P&I and excess mortality estimates are calculated by imputing the missing data. The impact of the treatment of unreported mortality data on national estimates is evaluated by comparing the estimates obtained using data with and without imputation. This comparison reflects some differences in mortality burden, excess deaths, and trends over time. The model presented is a useful approach to impute missing counts and improve inference in situations with modest occurrence of missing data.
KW - Influenza surveillance
KW - Excess mortality
KW - Missing data
KW - Serfling method
U2 - 10.1007/s00477-014-0974-4
DO - 10.1007/s00477-014-0974-4
M3 - Journal article
VL - 29
SP - 1499
EP - 1507
JO - Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
JF - Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
SN - 1436-3240
IS - 5
ER -