Research output: Working paper
Research output: Working paper
}
TY - UNPB
T1 - Modelling a baseball game to optimise pitcher substitution strategies incorporating handedness of players
AU - Hirotsu, N
AU - Wright, M B
PY - 2003
Y1 - 2003
N2 - This paper proposes a method for identifying the optimal strategy for substituting players in a baseball game, taking into consideration the handedness of players, which is one of the main factors in terms of managerial decision-making for substitution. Using a Markov Chain model we incorporate the effect of the handedness of players by introducing the concept of the Defensive Earned Run Average (DERA) as a measure of the defensive ability of pitchers and calibrating the batting probabilities of players depending on their handedness. We then develop a dynamic programming (DP) formulation including the effect of the handedness of players. This method is illustrated using a match based on the real line-ups of the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants in the National League of Major League Baseball, especially focusing on the introduction of a relief pitcher in consideration with his handedness
AB - This paper proposes a method for identifying the optimal strategy for substituting players in a baseball game, taking into consideration the handedness of players, which is one of the main factors in terms of managerial decision-making for substitution. Using a Markov Chain model we incorporate the effect of the handedness of players by introducing the concept of the Defensive Earned Run Average (DERA) as a measure of the defensive ability of pitchers and calibrating the batting probabilities of players depending on their handedness. We then develop a dynamic programming (DP) formulation including the effect of the handedness of players. This method is illustrated using a match based on the real line-ups of the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants in the National League of Major League Baseball, especially focusing on the introduction of a relief pitcher in consideration with his handedness
KW - baseball
KW - dynamic programming
KW - Markov chain
KW - modelling
KW - sports
KW - substitution
M3 - Working paper
T3 - Management Science Working Paper Series
BT - Modelling a baseball game to optimise pitcher substitution strategies incorporating handedness of players
PB - The Department of Management Science
CY - Lancaster University
ER -