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Modelling seasonal and multi annual variation in bank vole populations and nephropathia epidemica

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Modelling seasonal and multi annual variation in bank vole populations and nephropathia epidemica. / Haredasht, S. Amirpour; Taylor, C. James; Maes, P.; Verstraeten, W.W.; Clement, J.; Van Ranst, M.; Coppin, P.; Berckmans, D.; Aerts, Jean-Marie.

In: Biosystems Engineering, Vol. 121, 05.2014, p. 25–37.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Haredasht, SA, Taylor, CJ, Maes, P, Verstraeten, WW, Clement, J, Van Ranst, M, Coppin, P, Berckmans, D & Aerts, J-M 2014, 'Modelling seasonal and multi annual variation in bank vole populations and nephropathia epidemica', Biosystems Engineering, vol. 121, pp. 25–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2014.01.006

APA

Haredasht, S. A., Taylor, C. J., Maes, P., Verstraeten, W. W., Clement, J., Van Ranst, M., Coppin, P., Berckmans, D., & Aerts, J-M. (2014). Modelling seasonal and multi annual variation in bank vole populations and nephropathia epidemica. Biosystems Engineering, 121, 25–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2014.01.006

Vancouver

Haredasht SA, Taylor CJ, Maes P, Verstraeten WW, Clement J, Van Ranst M et al. Modelling seasonal and multi annual variation in bank vole populations and nephropathia epidemica. Biosystems Engineering. 2014 May;121:25–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2014.01.006

Author

Haredasht, S. Amirpour ; Taylor, C. James ; Maes, P. ; Verstraeten, W.W. ; Clement, J. ; Van Ranst, M. ; Coppin, P. ; Berckmans, D. ; Aerts, Jean-Marie. / Modelling seasonal and multi annual variation in bank vole populations and nephropathia epidemica. In: Biosystems Engineering. 2014 ; Vol. 121. pp. 25–37.

Bibtex

@article{4c8d14ae2e5d4cbba4e32a27246eb12a,
title = "Modelling seasonal and multi annual variation in bank vole populations and nephropathia epidemica",
abstract = "Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus (PUUV), which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective was to develop a dynamic model of the NE cases and the bank vole population in both Finland and Belgium by defining the periodic components with a dynamic harmonic regression (DHR) model. The defined periodic components can be further used to adapt mechanistic Susceptible and Infective (SI) models regionally. Despite the difference in bank vole population dynamics and NE cases between the Western European temperate zone and boreal zones the DHR model was able to quantify the dynamics of NE cases in Belgium and Central Finland with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.70 and 0.82 respectively and to quantify the dynamics of bank vole population in Belgium and Central Finland with R2 of 0.80 and 0.98 respectively. DHR identified 18 month cycles in the bank vole population in Belgium. This approach demonstrated two year cycles in Belgian NE outbreaks. DHR identified three year cycles in Finnish bank vole populations which in turn cause three year cycles in the NE outbreaks in Central Finland. Because the bank vole population data in Finland was contemporary with the data of NE cases, the DHR showed a three month delay between the NE cases and the bank vole population in Central Finland. This approach may help us in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of NE cases and the bank vole populations in different regions.",
keywords = "data-based modelling, hantaviruses, rodent-born diseases, population dynamics, time-series, zoonoses",
author = "Haredasht, {S. Amirpour} and Taylor, {C. James} and P. Maes and W.W. Verstraeten and J. Clement and {Van Ranst}, M. and P. Coppin and D. Berckmans and Jean-Marie Aerts",
year = "2014",
month = may,
doi = "10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2014.01.006",
language = "English",
volume = "121",
pages = "25–37",
journal = "Biosystems Engineering",
issn = "1537-5110",
publisher = "Academic Press Inc.",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling seasonal and multi annual variation in bank vole populations and nephropathia epidemica

AU - Haredasht, S. Amirpour

AU - Taylor, C. James

AU - Maes, P.

AU - Verstraeten, W.W.

AU - Clement, J.

AU - Van Ranst, M.

AU - Coppin, P.

AU - Berckmans, D.

AU - Aerts, Jean-Marie

PY - 2014/5

Y1 - 2014/5

N2 - Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus (PUUV), which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective was to develop a dynamic model of the NE cases and the bank vole population in both Finland and Belgium by defining the periodic components with a dynamic harmonic regression (DHR) model. The defined periodic components can be further used to adapt mechanistic Susceptible and Infective (SI) models regionally. Despite the difference in bank vole population dynamics and NE cases between the Western European temperate zone and boreal zones the DHR model was able to quantify the dynamics of NE cases in Belgium and Central Finland with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.70 and 0.82 respectively and to quantify the dynamics of bank vole population in Belgium and Central Finland with R2 of 0.80 and 0.98 respectively. DHR identified 18 month cycles in the bank vole population in Belgium. This approach demonstrated two year cycles in Belgian NE outbreaks. DHR identified three year cycles in Finnish bank vole populations which in turn cause three year cycles in the NE outbreaks in Central Finland. Because the bank vole population data in Finland was contemporary with the data of NE cases, the DHR showed a three month delay between the NE cases and the bank vole population in Central Finland. This approach may help us in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of NE cases and the bank vole populations in different regions.

AB - Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus (PUUV), which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective was to develop a dynamic model of the NE cases and the bank vole population in both Finland and Belgium by defining the periodic components with a dynamic harmonic regression (DHR) model. The defined periodic components can be further used to adapt mechanistic Susceptible and Infective (SI) models regionally. Despite the difference in bank vole population dynamics and NE cases between the Western European temperate zone and boreal zones the DHR model was able to quantify the dynamics of NE cases in Belgium and Central Finland with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.70 and 0.82 respectively and to quantify the dynamics of bank vole population in Belgium and Central Finland with R2 of 0.80 and 0.98 respectively. DHR identified 18 month cycles in the bank vole population in Belgium. This approach demonstrated two year cycles in Belgian NE outbreaks. DHR identified three year cycles in Finnish bank vole populations which in turn cause three year cycles in the NE outbreaks in Central Finland. Because the bank vole population data in Finland was contemporary with the data of NE cases, the DHR showed a three month delay between the NE cases and the bank vole population in Central Finland. This approach may help us in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of NE cases and the bank vole populations in different regions.

KW - data-based modelling

KW - hantaviruses

KW - rodent-born diseases

KW - population dynamics

KW - time-series

KW - zoonoses

U2 - 10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2014.01.006

DO - 10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2014.01.006

M3 - Journal article

VL - 121

SP - 25

EP - 37

JO - Biosystems Engineering

JF - Biosystems Engineering

SN - 1537-5110

ER -