TY - UNPB

T1 - Modelling tactical changes of formation in association football as a zero-sum game

AU - Hirotsu, N

AU - Wright, M B

PY - 2005

Y1 - 2005

N2 - This paper proposes a game theoretic approach to modelling tactical changes of formation in an association football match. We use a Poisson regression model to evaluate the offensive and defensive strengths of the formations of teams for scoring or conceding a goal by means of the maximum likelihood method. We then develop a mathematical formulation to express quantitatively the tactical changes of formation as a zero-sum game by taking account of both teams’ decisions. We demonstrate how the managers’ decisions affect the probability of winning the match using real data of the J League, by showing the four cases of the quality of both managers’ decisions, depending on whether they each use their best or worst strategies.

AB - This paper proposes a game theoretic approach to modelling tactical changes of formation in an association football match. We use a Poisson regression model to evaluate the offensive and defensive strengths of the formations of teams for scoring or conceding a goal by means of the maximum likelihood method. We then develop a mathematical formulation to express quantitatively the tactical changes of formation as a zero-sum game by taking account of both teams’ decisions. We demonstrate how the managers’ decisions affect the probability of winning the match using real data of the J League, by showing the four cases of the quality of both managers’ decisions, depending on whether they each use their best or worst strategies.

M3 - Working paper

T3 - Management Science Working Paper Series

BT - Modelling tactical changes of formation in association football as a zero-sum game

PB - The Department of Management Science

CY - Lancaster University

ER -