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Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

<mark>Journal publication date</mark>01/2008
<mark>Journal</mark>Mathematical Biosciences
Issue number1
Number of pages20
Pages (from-to)166-185
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date4/11/07
<mark>Original language</mark>English


This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications.

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