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Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability. / Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Durack, Paul J.; Slater, Andrew et al.
Climate Change 2013 - the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 2014. p. 953-1028.
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Harvard
Bindoff, NL, Durack, PJ, Slater, A, Cameron-Smith, P, Chikamoto, Y, Clifton, O, Ginoux, P, Holland, M, Holmes, C, Infanti, J, Jacob, D, John, J, Knutson, T, Lawrence, D, Lu, J, Murphy, D, Naik, V, Robock, A, Vavrus, S, Ishii, M, Corti, S, Fichefet, T, García-Serrano, J, Guemas, V, Gray, L, Hawkins, E, Smith, D, Stevenson, DS, Voulgarakis, A, Weisheimer, A
, Wild, O, Woollings, T
, Young, P, Krinner, G, Klimont, Z, Sedláček, J, van den Hurk, B & van Noije, T 2014,
Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability. in
Climate Change 2013 - the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 953-1028.
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023APA
Bindoff, N. L., Durack, P. J., Slater, A., Cameron-Smith, P., Chikamoto, Y., Clifton, O., Ginoux, P., Holland, M., Holmes, C., Infanti, J., Jacob, D., John, J., Knutson, T., Lawrence, D., Lu, J., Murphy, D., Naik, V., Robock, A., Vavrus, S., ... van Noije, T. (2014).
Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability. In
Climate Change 2013 - the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 953-1028). Cambridge University Press.
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023Vancouver
Bindoff NL, Durack PJ, Slater A, Cameron-Smith P, Chikamoto Y, Clifton O et al.
Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability. In Climate Change 2013 - the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 2014. p. 953-1028 doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023
Author
Bindoff, Nathaniel L. ; Durack, Paul J. ; Slater, Andrew et al. /
Near-term climate change : Projections and predictability. Climate Change 2013 - the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 2014. pp. 953-1028
Bibtex
@inbook{2e9d4917aa2e4937af917599e158072a,
title = "Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability",
abstract = "This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate (present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated, {\textquoteleft}near-term{\textquoteright} change and the projected changes below are for the period 2016-2035 relative to the reference period 1986-2005. Atmospheric composition (apart from CO2; see Chapter 12) and air quality projections through to 2100 are also assessed. Decadal Prediction. The nonlinear and chaotic nature of the climate system imposes natual limits on the extent to which skilful predictions of climate statistics may be made. M.del-based {\textquoteleft}predictability{\textquoteright} studies, which probe these limits and investigate the physical mechanisms involved, support the potential for the skilful prediction of annual to decadal average temperature and, to a lesser extent precipitation. Predictions for averages of temperature, over large regions of the planet and for the global mean, exhibit positive skill when verified against observations for forecast periods up to ten years (high confidence). Predictions of precipitation over some land areas also exhibit positive skill. Decadal prediction is a new endeavour in climate science. The level of quality for climate predictions of annual to decadal average quantities is assessed from the past performance of initialized predictions and non-initialized simulations. {11.2.3, Figures 11.3 and 11.4}. In current results, observation-based initialization is the dominant contributor to the skill of predictions of annual mean temperature for the first few years and to the skill of predictions of the global mean surface temperature and the temperature over the North Atlantic, regions of the South Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean for longer periods (high confidence).",
author = "Bindoff, {Nathaniel L.} and Durack, {Paul J.} and Andrew Slater and Philip Cameron-Smith and Yoshimitsu Chikamoto and Olivia Clifton and Paul Ginoux and Marika Holland and Christopher Holmes and Johnna Infanti and Daniel Jacob and Jasmin John and Thomas Knutson and David Lawrence and Jian Lu and Daniel Murphy and Vaishali Naik and Alan Robock and Steve Vavrus and Masayoshi Ishii and Susanna Corti and Thierry Fichefet and Javier Garc{\'i}a-Serrano and Virginie Guemas and Lesley Gray and Ed Hawkins and Doug Smith and Stevenson, {David S.} and Apostolos Voulgarakis and Antje Weisheimer and Oliver Wild and Tim Woollings and Paul Young and Gerhard Krinner and Zbigniew Klimont and Jan Sedl{\'a}{\v c}ek and {van den Hurk}, Bart and {van Noije}, Twan",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023",
language = "English",
isbn = "9781107057999",
pages = "953--1028",
booktitle = "Climate Change 2013 - the Physical Science Basis",
publisher = "Cambridge University Press",
}
RIS
TY - CHAP
T1 - Near-term climate change
T2 - Projections and predictability
AU - Bindoff, Nathaniel L.
AU - Durack, Paul J.
AU - Slater, Andrew
AU - Cameron-Smith, Philip
AU - Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu
AU - Clifton, Olivia
AU - Ginoux, Paul
AU - Holland, Marika
AU - Holmes, Christopher
AU - Infanti, Johnna
AU - Jacob, Daniel
AU - John, Jasmin
AU - Knutson, Thomas
AU - Lawrence, David
AU - Lu, Jian
AU - Murphy, Daniel
AU - Naik, Vaishali
AU - Robock, Alan
AU - Vavrus, Steve
AU - Ishii, Masayoshi
AU - Corti, Susanna
AU - Fichefet, Thierry
AU - García-Serrano, Javier
AU - Guemas, Virginie
AU - Gray, Lesley
AU - Hawkins, Ed
AU - Smith, Doug
AU - Stevenson, David S.
AU - Voulgarakis, Apostolos
AU - Weisheimer, Antje
AU - Wild, Oliver
AU - Woollings, Tim
AU - Young, Paul
AU - Krinner, Gerhard
AU - Klimont, Zbigniew
AU - Sedláček, Jan
AU - van den Hurk, Bart
AU - van Noije, Twan
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate (present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated, ‘near-term’ change and the projected changes below are for the period 2016-2035 relative to the reference period 1986-2005. Atmospheric composition (apart from CO2; see Chapter 12) and air quality projections through to 2100 are also assessed. Decadal Prediction. The nonlinear and chaotic nature of the climate system imposes natual limits on the extent to which skilful predictions of climate statistics may be made. M.del-based ‘predictability’ studies, which probe these limits and investigate the physical mechanisms involved, support the potential for the skilful prediction of annual to decadal average temperature and, to a lesser extent precipitation. Predictions for averages of temperature, over large regions of the planet and for the global mean, exhibit positive skill when verified against observations for forecast periods up to ten years (high confidence). Predictions of precipitation over some land areas also exhibit positive skill. Decadal prediction is a new endeavour in climate science. The level of quality for climate predictions of annual to decadal average quantities is assessed from the past performance of initialized predictions and non-initialized simulations. {11.2.3, Figures 11.3 and 11.4}. In current results, observation-based initialization is the dominant contributor to the skill of predictions of annual mean temperature for the first few years and to the skill of predictions of the global mean surface temperature and the temperature over the North Atlantic, regions of the South Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean for longer periods (high confidence).
AB - This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate (present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated, ‘near-term’ change and the projected changes below are for the period 2016-2035 relative to the reference period 1986-2005. Atmospheric composition (apart from CO2; see Chapter 12) and air quality projections through to 2100 are also assessed. Decadal Prediction. The nonlinear and chaotic nature of the climate system imposes natual limits on the extent to which skilful predictions of climate statistics may be made. M.del-based ‘predictability’ studies, which probe these limits and investigate the physical mechanisms involved, support the potential for the skilful prediction of annual to decadal average temperature and, to a lesser extent precipitation. Predictions for averages of temperature, over large regions of the planet and for the global mean, exhibit positive skill when verified against observations for forecast periods up to ten years (high confidence). Predictions of precipitation over some land areas also exhibit positive skill. Decadal prediction is a new endeavour in climate science. The level of quality for climate predictions of annual to decadal average quantities is assessed from the past performance of initialized predictions and non-initialized simulations. {11.2.3, Figures 11.3 and 11.4}. In current results, observation-based initialization is the dominant contributor to the skill of predictions of annual mean temperature for the first few years and to the skill of predictions of the global mean surface temperature and the temperature over the North Atlantic, regions of the South Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean for longer periods (high confidence).
U2 - 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023
DO - 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023
M3 - Chapter
SN - 9781107057999
SP - 953
EP - 1028
BT - Climate Change 2013 - the Physical Science Basis
PB - Cambridge University Press
ER -
