TY - UNPB

T1 - Non-Linear Identification of Judgmental Forecasts Effects at SKU-Level

AU - Trapero Arenas, J R

AU - Fildes, R A

AU - Davydenko, A

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - Prediction of demand is a key component within supply chain management. Im- proved accuracy in forecasts affects directly all levels of the supply chain, reduc- ing stock costs and increasing customer satisfaction. In many application areas, demand prediction relies on statistical software which provides an initial forecast subsequently modified by the expert’s judgment. This paper outlines a new method- ology based on State Dependent Parameter (SDP) estimation techniques to identify the non-linear behaviour of such managerial adjustments. This non-parametric SDP estimate is used as a guideline to propose a non-linear model that corrects the bias introduced by the managerial adjustments. One-step-ahead forecasts of SKU sales sampled monthly from a manufacturing company are utilized to test the proposed methodology. The results indicate that adjustments introduce a non-linear pattern undermining accuracy. This understanding can be used to enhance the design of the Forecasting Support System in order to help forecasters towards more efficient judgmental adjustments.

AB - Prediction of demand is a key component within supply chain management. Im- proved accuracy in forecasts affects directly all levels of the supply chain, reduc- ing stock costs and increasing customer satisfaction. In many application areas, demand prediction relies on statistical software which provides an initial forecast subsequently modified by the expert’s judgment. This paper outlines a new method- ology based on State Dependent Parameter (SDP) estimation techniques to identify the non-linear behaviour of such managerial adjustments. This non-parametric SDP estimate is used as a guideline to propose a non-linear model that corrects the bias introduced by the managerial adjustments. One-step-ahead forecasts of SKU sales sampled monthly from a manufacturing company are utilized to test the proposed methodology. The results indicate that adjustments introduce a non-linear pattern undermining accuracy. This understanding can be used to enhance the design of the Forecasting Support System in order to help forecasters towards more efficient judgmental adjustments.

KW - Forecast adjustment

KW - Supply chain

KW - Non-linear system identification

M3 - Working paper

T3 - Management Science Working Paper Series

BT - Non-Linear Identification of Judgmental Forecasts Effects at SKU-Level

PB - The Department of Management Science

CY - Lancaster University

ER -