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Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates

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Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) : Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates. / Read, J.M.; Bridgen, J.R.E.; Cummings, D.A.T.; Ho, A.; Jewell, C.P.

In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 376, No. 1829, 20200265, 19.07.2021.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Read, JM, Bridgen, JRE, Cummings, DAT, Ho, A & Jewell, CP 2021, 'Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates', Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 376, no. 1829, 20200265. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265

APA

Read, J. M., Bridgen, J. R. E., Cummings, D. A. T., Ho, A., & Jewell, C. P. (2021). Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376(1829), [20200265]. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265

Vancouver

Read JM, Bridgen JRE, Cummings DAT, Ho A, Jewell CP. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2021 Jul 19;376(1829). 20200265. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265

Author

Read, J.M. ; Bridgen, J.R.E. ; Cummings, D.A.T. ; Ho, A. ; Jewell, C.P. / Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) : Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates. In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2021 ; Vol. 376, No. 1829.

Bibtex

@article{9b640bfcc25a4d0c86050bbbfd1e55c7,
title = "Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates",
abstract = "Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39-4.13), indicating that 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6-7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090-33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'. ",
keywords = "ascertainment rate, China, international travel, pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, transmission model, Coronavirus, SARS coronavirus",
author = "J.M. Read and J.R.E. Bridgen and D.A.T. Cummings and A. Ho and C.P. Jewell",
year = "2021",
month = jul,
day = "19",
doi = "10.1098/rstb.2020.0265",
language = "English",
volume = "376",
journal = "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences",
issn = "0962-8436",
publisher = "Royal Society",
number = "1829",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19)

T2 - Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates

AU - Read, J.M.

AU - Bridgen, J.R.E.

AU - Cummings, D.A.T.

AU - Ho, A.

AU - Jewell, C.P.

PY - 2021/7/19

Y1 - 2021/7/19

N2 - Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39-4.13), indicating that 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6-7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090-33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

AB - Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39-4.13), indicating that 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6-7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090-33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

KW - ascertainment rate

KW - China

KW - international travel

KW - pandemic

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - transmission model

KW - Coronavirus

KW - SARS coronavirus

U2 - 10.1098/rstb.2020.0265

DO - 10.1098/rstb.2020.0265

M3 - Journal article

VL - 376

JO - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

SN - 0962-8436

IS - 1829

M1 - 20200265

ER -