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On Bayesian analysis of nonlinear continuous-time autoregression models.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
  • O. Stramer
  • Gareth O. Roberts
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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>09/2007
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Time Series Analysis
Issue number5
Volume28
Number of pages19
Pages (from-to)744-762
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

This article introduces a method for performing fully Bayesian inference for nonlinear conditional autoregressive continuous-time models, based on a finite skeleton of observations. Our approach uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and involves imputing data from times at which observations are not made. It uses a reparameterization technique for the missing data, and because of the non-Markovian nature of the models, it is necessary to adopt an overlapping blocks scheme for sequentially updating segments of missing data. We illustrate the methodology using both simulated data and a data set from the S & P 500 index.