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On the categorization of demand patterns

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On the categorization of demand patterns. / Syntetos, A. A.; Boylan, John; Croston, J. D.
In: Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 56, No. 5, 01.05.2005, p. 495-503.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Syntetos, AA, Boylan, J & Croston, JD 2005, 'On the categorization of demand patterns', Journal of the Operational Research Society, vol. 56, no. 5, pp. 495-503. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601841

APA

Syntetos, A. A., Boylan, J., & Croston, J. D. (2005). On the categorization of demand patterns. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 56(5), 495-503. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601841

Vancouver

Syntetos AA, Boylan J, Croston JD. On the categorization of demand patterns. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 2005 May 1;56(5):495-503. doi: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601841

Author

Syntetos, A. A. ; Boylan, John ; Croston, J. D. / On the categorization of demand patterns. In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 2005 ; Vol. 56, No. 5. pp. 495-503.

Bibtex

@article{82bcba6702564718973ecc78fe7f7825,
title = "On the categorization of demand patterns",
abstract = "The categorization of alternative demand patterns facilitates the selection of a forecasting method and it is an essential element of many inventory control software packages. The common practice in the inventory control software industry is to arbitrarily categorize those demand patterns and then proceed to select an estimation procedure and optimize the forecast parameters. Alternatively, forecasting methods can be directly compared, based on some theoretically quantified error measure, for the purpose of establishing regions of superior performance and then define the demand patterns based on the results. It is this approach that is discussed in this paper and its application is demonstrated by considering EWMA, Croston's method and an alternative to Croston's estimator developed by the first two authors of this paper. Comparison results are based on a theoretical analysis of the mean square error due to its mathematically tractable nature. The categorization rules proposed are expressed in terms of the average inter-demand interval and the squared coefficient of variation of demand sizes. The validity of the results is tested on 3000 real-intermittent demand data series coming from the automotive industry.",
author = "Syntetos, {A. A.} and John Boylan and Croston, {J. D.}",
year = "2005",
month = may,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601841",
language = "English",
volume = "56",
pages = "495--503",
journal = "Journal of the Operational Research Society",
issn = "0160-5682",
publisher = "Taylor and Francis Ltd.",
number = "5",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - On the categorization of demand patterns

AU - Syntetos, A. A.

AU - Boylan, John

AU - Croston, J. D.

PY - 2005/5/1

Y1 - 2005/5/1

N2 - The categorization of alternative demand patterns facilitates the selection of a forecasting method and it is an essential element of many inventory control software packages. The common practice in the inventory control software industry is to arbitrarily categorize those demand patterns and then proceed to select an estimation procedure and optimize the forecast parameters. Alternatively, forecasting methods can be directly compared, based on some theoretically quantified error measure, for the purpose of establishing regions of superior performance and then define the demand patterns based on the results. It is this approach that is discussed in this paper and its application is demonstrated by considering EWMA, Croston's method and an alternative to Croston's estimator developed by the first two authors of this paper. Comparison results are based on a theoretical analysis of the mean square error due to its mathematically tractable nature. The categorization rules proposed are expressed in terms of the average inter-demand interval and the squared coefficient of variation of demand sizes. The validity of the results is tested on 3000 real-intermittent demand data series coming from the automotive industry.

AB - The categorization of alternative demand patterns facilitates the selection of a forecasting method and it is an essential element of many inventory control software packages. The common practice in the inventory control software industry is to arbitrarily categorize those demand patterns and then proceed to select an estimation procedure and optimize the forecast parameters. Alternatively, forecasting methods can be directly compared, based on some theoretically quantified error measure, for the purpose of establishing regions of superior performance and then define the demand patterns based on the results. It is this approach that is discussed in this paper and its application is demonstrated by considering EWMA, Croston's method and an alternative to Croston's estimator developed by the first two authors of this paper. Comparison results are based on a theoretical analysis of the mean square error due to its mathematically tractable nature. The categorization rules proposed are expressed in terms of the average inter-demand interval and the squared coefficient of variation of demand sizes. The validity of the results is tested on 3000 real-intermittent demand data series coming from the automotive industry.

U2 - 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601841

DO - 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601841

M3 - Journal article

VL - 56

SP - 495

EP - 503

JO - Journal of the Operational Research Society

JF - Journal of the Operational Research Society

SN - 0160-5682

IS - 5

ER -