Final published version
Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Patterns of abundance across geographical ranges as a predictor for responses to climate change
T2 - Evidence from UK rocky shores
AU - Vye, Siobhan R.
AU - Dickens, Stephanie
AU - Adams, Leonie
AU - Bohn, Katrin
AU - Chenery, Jade
AU - Dobson, Nicola
AU - Dunn, Ruth
PY - 2020/10/31
Y1 - 2020/10/31
N2 - AimUnderstanding patterns in the abundance of species across thermal ranges can give useful insights into the potential impacts of climate change. The abundant-centre hypothesis suggests that species will reach peak abundance at the centre of their thermal range where conditions are optimal, but evidence in support of this hypothesis is mixed and limited in geographical and taxonomic scope. We tested the applicability of the abundant-centre hypothesis across a range of intertidal organisms using a large, citizen science-generated data set.LocationUK.MethodsSpecies' abundance records were matched with their location within their thermal range. Patterns in abundance distribution for individual species, and across aggregated species abundances, were analysed using Kruskal–Wallis tests and quantile general additive models.ResultsIndividually, invertebrate species showed increasing abundances in the cooler half of the thermal range and decreasing abundances in the warmer half of the thermal range. The overall shape for aggregated invertebrate species abundances reflected a broad peak, with a cool-skewed maximum abundance. Algal species showed little evidence for an abundant-centre distribution individually, but overall the aggregated species abundances suggested a hump-backed abundance distribution.Main ConclusionsOur study follows others in showing mixed support for the abundant-centre hypothesis at an individual species level, but demonstrates an increased predictability in species responses when an aggregated overall response is considered.
AB - AimUnderstanding patterns in the abundance of species across thermal ranges can give useful insights into the potential impacts of climate change. The abundant-centre hypothesis suggests that species will reach peak abundance at the centre of their thermal range where conditions are optimal, but evidence in support of this hypothesis is mixed and limited in geographical and taxonomic scope. We tested the applicability of the abundant-centre hypothesis across a range of intertidal organisms using a large, citizen science-generated data set.LocationUK.MethodsSpecies' abundance records were matched with their location within their thermal range. Patterns in abundance distribution for individual species, and across aggregated species abundances, were analysed using Kruskal–Wallis tests and quantile general additive models.ResultsIndividually, invertebrate species showed increasing abundances in the cooler half of the thermal range and decreasing abundances in the warmer half of the thermal range. The overall shape for aggregated invertebrate species abundances reflected a broad peak, with a cool-skewed maximum abundance. Algal species showed little evidence for an abundant-centre distribution individually, but overall the aggregated species abundances suggested a hump-backed abundance distribution.Main ConclusionsOur study follows others in showing mixed support for the abundant-centre hypothesis at an individual species level, but demonstrates an increased predictability in species responses when an aggregated overall response is considered.
KW - abundant-centre hypothesis
KW - algae
KW - citizen science
KW - intertidal
KW - invertebrates
KW - thermal niche
U2 - 10.1111/ddi.13118
DO - 10.1111/ddi.13118
M3 - Journal article
VL - 26
SP - 1357
EP - 1365
JO - Diversity and Distributions
JF - Diversity and Distributions
SN - 1366-9516
IS - 10
ER -