TY - JOUR

T1 - Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment

AU - Rumpf, Clemens

AU - Lewis, Hugh G.

AU - Atkinson, Peter Michael

N1 - This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Rumpf, C. M., Lewis, H. G. and Atkinson, P. M. (2017), Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment. Meteorit Planet Sci, 52: 1082-1102. doi:10.1111/maps.12861 which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/maps.12861/abstract This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving

PY - 2017/6

Y1 - 2017/6

N2 - An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst or surface impact and calculates effect severity as well as reach on the global map. To calculate the consequences of an impact in terms of loss of human life, new vulnerability models are derived that connect the severity of seven impact effects (strong winds, overpressure shockwave, thermal radiation, seismic shaking, ejecta deposition, cratering, and tsunamis) with lethality to human populations. With the new vulnerability models, ARMOR estimates casualties of an impact under consideration of the local population and geography. The presented algorithms and models are employed in two case studies to estimate total casualties as well as the damage contribution of each impact effect. The case studies highlight that aerothermal effects are most harmful except for deep water impacts, where tsunamis are the dominant hazard. Continental shelves serve a protective function against the tsunami hazard caused by impactors on the shelf. Furthermore, the calculation of impact consequences facilitates asteroid risk estimation to better characterize a given threat, and the concept of risk as well as its applicability to the asteroid impact scenario are presented

AB - An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst or surface impact and calculates effect severity as well as reach on the global map. To calculate the consequences of an impact in terms of loss of human life, new vulnerability models are derived that connect the severity of seven impact effects (strong winds, overpressure shockwave, thermal radiation, seismic shaking, ejecta deposition, cratering, and tsunamis) with lethality to human populations. With the new vulnerability models, ARMOR estimates casualties of an impact under consideration of the local population and geography. The presented algorithms and models are employed in two case studies to estimate total casualties as well as the damage contribution of each impact effect. The case studies highlight that aerothermal effects are most harmful except for deep water impacts, where tsunamis are the dominant hazard. Continental shelves serve a protective function against the tsunami hazard caused by impactors on the shelf. Furthermore, the calculation of impact consequences facilitates asteroid risk estimation to better characterize a given threat, and the concept of risk as well as its applicability to the asteroid impact scenario are presented

U2 - 10.1111/maps.12861

DO - 10.1111/maps.12861

M3 - Journal article

VL - 52

SP - 1082

EP - 1102

JO - Meteoritics and Planetary Science

JF - Meteoritics and Planetary Science

SN - 1086-9379

IS - 6

ER -