TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting range shifts for critically endangered plants

T2 - Is habitat connectivity irrelevant or necessary?

AU - Yesuf, Gabriel

AU - Brown, Kerry A.

AU - Walford, Nigel

AU - Rakotoarisoa, Solofo

AU - Rufino, Mariana

PY - 2021/4/1

Y1 - 2021/4/1

N2 - Climate and land-cover change will directly impact future species distributions, leading to range expansions, contractions and local extinctions. However, assessments of future range shifts rarely account for the capacity of the landscape matrix to facilitate species dispersals. Here, we assessed future range shifts for a suite of critically endangered plants in Madagascar. We quantified habitat connectivity using a least cost path model that captured the potential of species to disperse within fragmented landscapes. Next, we constructed three scenarios representing landscapes impacted by climate-only, climate and land-cover change, as well as habitat connectivity. We modelled species distributions using a hierarchical Bayesian framework and measured future range shifts usingthree spatial indices: net-change, range distance and elevation change. Our results show that the median range shift due to contractions increased by 25% under the climate-only scenario compared with the connectivity scenario. Habitat connectivity is predicted to limit range shifts due to contractions, while increasing shifts due to expansions for many of the endangered and critically endangered plants on Madagascar. However, at least one third of critically endangered and 50% of endangered plants are expected to experience range contractions and upslope displacement under all scenarios, suggesting that even with habitat connectivity the range of some species may still contract. Despite that finding, our study suggests that including connectivity in range shiftmodels is crucial for developing a relevant connectivity conservation plan, since future climate or climate and land-cover change models do not adequately represent species’ potential to reach safe sites.

AB - Climate and land-cover change will directly impact future species distributions, leading to range expansions, contractions and local extinctions. However, assessments of future range shifts rarely account for the capacity of the landscape matrix to facilitate species dispersals. Here, we assessed future range shifts for a suite of critically endangered plants in Madagascar. We quantified habitat connectivity using a least cost path model that captured the potential of species to disperse within fragmented landscapes. Next, we constructed three scenarios representing landscapes impacted by climate-only, climate and land-cover change, as well as habitat connectivity. We modelled species distributions using a hierarchical Bayesian framework and measured future range shifts usingthree spatial indices: net-change, range distance and elevation change. Our results show that the median range shift due to contractions increased by 25% under the climate-only scenario compared with the connectivity scenario. Habitat connectivity is predicted to limit range shifts due to contractions, while increasing shifts due to expansions for many of the endangered and critically endangered plants on Madagascar. However, at least one third of critically endangered and 50% of endangered plants are expected to experience range contractions and upslope displacement under all scenarios, suggesting that even with habitat connectivity the range of some species may still contract. Despite that finding, our study suggests that including connectivity in range shiftmodels is crucial for developing a relevant connectivity conservation plan, since future climate or climate and land-cover change models do not adequately represent species’ potential to reach safe sites.

KW - Climate change

KW - Critically endangered plants

KW - Habitat connectivity

KW - Land-cover change

KW - Madagascar

KW - Range shifts

U2 - 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109033

DO - 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109033

M3 - Journal article

VL - 256

JO - Biological Conservation

JF - Biological Conservation

SN - 0006-3207

M1 - 109033

ER -