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Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining. / Rakha, Ahmed; Hettiarachchi, Hansi; Rady, Dina et al.
In: Economies, Vol. 9, No. 4, 137, 27.09.2021.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Rakha, A, Hettiarachchi, H, Rady, D, Gaber, MM, Rakha, E & Abdelsamea, MM 2021, 'Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining', Economies, vol. 9, no. 4, 137. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9040137

APA

Rakha, A., Hettiarachchi, H., Rady, D., Gaber, M. M., Rakha, E., & Abdelsamea, M. M. (2021). Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining. Economies, 9(4), Article 137. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9040137

Vancouver

Rakha A, Hettiarachchi H, Rady D, Gaber MM, Rakha E, Abdelsamea MM. Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining. Economies. 2021 Sept 27;9(4):137. doi: 10.3390/economies9040137

Author

Rakha, Ahmed ; Hettiarachchi, Hansi ; Rady, Dina et al. / Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining. In: Economies. 2021 ; Vol. 9, No. 4.

Bibtex

@article{beb2c819d9c34a28a0b8844fddc59a7d,
title = "Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining",
abstract = "The COVID-19 pandemic has brought economic activity to a near standstill as many countries imposed very strict restrictions on movement to halt the spread of the virus. This study aims at assessing the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK) using artificial intelligence (AI) and data from previous economic crises to predict future economic impacts. The macroeconomic indicators, gross domestic products (GDP) and GDP growth, and data on the performance of three primary industries in the UK (the construction, production and service industries) were analysed using a comparison with the pattern of previous economic crises. In this research, we experimented with the effectiveness of both continuous and categorical time-series forecasting on predicting future values to generate more accurate and useful results in the economic domain. Continuous value predictions indicate that GDP growth in 2021 will remain steady, but at around −8.5% contraction, compared to the baseline figures before the pandemic. Further, the categorical predictions indicate that there will be no quarterly drop in GDP following the first quarter of 2021. This study provided evidence-based data on the economic effects of COVID-19 that can be used to plan necessary recovery procedures and to take appropriate actions to support the economy.",
author = "Ahmed Rakha and Hansi Hettiarachchi and Dina Rady and Gaber, {Mohamed Medhat} and Emad Rakha and Abdelsamea, {Mohammed M.}",
year = "2021",
month = sep,
day = "27",
doi = "10.3390/economies9040137",
language = "English",
volume = "9",
journal = "Economies",
issn = "2227-7099",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining

AU - Rakha, Ahmed

AU - Hettiarachchi, Hansi

AU - Rady, Dina

AU - Gaber, Mohamed Medhat

AU - Rakha, Emad

AU - Abdelsamea, Mohammed M.

PY - 2021/9/27

Y1 - 2021/9/27

N2 - The COVID-19 pandemic has brought economic activity to a near standstill as many countries imposed very strict restrictions on movement to halt the spread of the virus. This study aims at assessing the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK) using artificial intelligence (AI) and data from previous economic crises to predict future economic impacts. The macroeconomic indicators, gross domestic products (GDP) and GDP growth, and data on the performance of three primary industries in the UK (the construction, production and service industries) were analysed using a comparison with the pattern of previous economic crises. In this research, we experimented with the effectiveness of both continuous and categorical time-series forecasting on predicting future values to generate more accurate and useful results in the economic domain. Continuous value predictions indicate that GDP growth in 2021 will remain steady, but at around −8.5% contraction, compared to the baseline figures before the pandemic. Further, the categorical predictions indicate that there will be no quarterly drop in GDP following the first quarter of 2021. This study provided evidence-based data on the economic effects of COVID-19 that can be used to plan necessary recovery procedures and to take appropriate actions to support the economy.

AB - The COVID-19 pandemic has brought economic activity to a near standstill as many countries imposed very strict restrictions on movement to halt the spread of the virus. This study aims at assessing the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK) using artificial intelligence (AI) and data from previous economic crises to predict future economic impacts. The macroeconomic indicators, gross domestic products (GDP) and GDP growth, and data on the performance of three primary industries in the UK (the construction, production and service industries) were analysed using a comparison with the pattern of previous economic crises. In this research, we experimented with the effectiveness of both continuous and categorical time-series forecasting on predicting future values to generate more accurate and useful results in the economic domain. Continuous value predictions indicate that GDP growth in 2021 will remain steady, but at around −8.5% contraction, compared to the baseline figures before the pandemic. Further, the categorical predictions indicate that there will be no quarterly drop in GDP following the first quarter of 2021. This study provided evidence-based data on the economic effects of COVID-19 that can be used to plan necessary recovery procedures and to take appropriate actions to support the economy.

U2 - 10.3390/economies9040137

DO - 10.3390/economies9040137

M3 - Journal article

VL - 9

JO - Economies

JF - Economies

SN - 2227-7099

IS - 4

M1 - 137

ER -