Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Translated title of the contribution | Forecasting flash floods using data-based mechanistic models and NORA radar rainfall forecasts |
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<mark>Journal publication date</mark> | 1/01/2014 |
<mark>Journal</mark> | Hydrological Sciences Journal |
Issue number | 7 |
Volume | 59 |
Number of pages | 15 |
Pages (from-to) | 1403-1417 |
Publication Status | Published |
<mark>Original language</mark> | French |
Data-based mechanistic (DBM) models can offer a parsimonious representation of catchment dynamics. They have been shown to provide reliable accurate flood forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work, the DBM methodology is applied to forecast flash floods in a small Alpine catchment. Compared to previous DBM modelling studies, the catchment response is rapid. The use of novel radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts based on analogues to drive the DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. The characterization of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and a framework for its representation illustrated.