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Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed, eddy flux sites

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Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed, eddy flux sites. / Mitchell, Stephen; Beven, Keith; Freer, Jim et al.
In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 116, No. G2, G02008, 2011.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Mitchell, S, Beven, K, Freer, J & Law, B 2011, 'Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed, eddy flux sites', Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, vol. 116, no. G2, G02008. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JG001146

APA

Mitchell, S., Beven, K., Freer, J., & Law, B. (2011). Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed, eddy flux sites. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 116(G2), Article G02008. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JG001146

Vancouver

Mitchell S, Beven K, Freer J, Law B. Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed, eddy flux sites. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 2011;116(G2):G02008. doi: 10.1029/2009JG001146

Author

Mitchell, Stephen ; Beven, Keith ; Freer, Jim et al. / Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed, eddy flux sites. In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 2011 ; Vol. 116, No. G2.

Bibtex

@article{58718af96b4a47b2b67743017fba695e,
title = "Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed, eddy flux sites",
abstract = "[1] Semiarid forests are very sensitive to climatic change and among the most difficult ecosystems to accurately model. We tested the performance of the Biome-BGC model against eddy flux data taken from young (years 2004–2008), mature (years 2002–2008), and old-growth (year 2000) ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon, and subsequently examined several potential causes for model-data mismatch. We used the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology, which involved 500,000 model runs for each stand (1,500,000 total). Each simulation was run with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) that were compared to measured eddy flux data. Simulations for the young stand exhibited the highest level of performance, though they overestimated ecosystem C accumulation (−NEE) 99% of the time. Among the simulations for the mature and old-growth stands, 100% and 99% of the simulations underestimated ecosystem C accumulation. One obvious area of model-data mismatch is soil moisture, which was overestimated by the model in the young and old-growth stands yet underestimated in the mature stand. However, modeled estimates of soil water content and associated water deficits did not appear to be the primary cause of model-data mismatch; our analysis indicated that gross primary production can be accurately modeled even if soil moisture content is not. Instead, difficulties in adequately modeling ecosystem respiration, mainly autotrophic respiration, appeared to be the fundamental cause of model-data mismatch.",
keywords = "model-data synthesis, Biome-BGC, biogeochemistry, net ecosystem exchange, Ameriflux, GLUE",
author = "Stephen Mitchell and Keith Beven and Jim Freer and Beverley Law",
year = "2011",
doi = "10.1029/2009JG001146",
language = "English",
volume = "116",
journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences",
issn = "2169-8961",
publisher = "AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION",
number = "G2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed, eddy flux sites

AU - Mitchell, Stephen

AU - Beven, Keith

AU - Freer, Jim

AU - Law, Beverley

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - [1] Semiarid forests are very sensitive to climatic change and among the most difficult ecosystems to accurately model. We tested the performance of the Biome-BGC model against eddy flux data taken from young (years 2004–2008), mature (years 2002–2008), and old-growth (year 2000) ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon, and subsequently examined several potential causes for model-data mismatch. We used the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology, which involved 500,000 model runs for each stand (1,500,000 total). Each simulation was run with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) that were compared to measured eddy flux data. Simulations for the young stand exhibited the highest level of performance, though they overestimated ecosystem C accumulation (−NEE) 99% of the time. Among the simulations for the mature and old-growth stands, 100% and 99% of the simulations underestimated ecosystem C accumulation. One obvious area of model-data mismatch is soil moisture, which was overestimated by the model in the young and old-growth stands yet underestimated in the mature stand. However, modeled estimates of soil water content and associated water deficits did not appear to be the primary cause of model-data mismatch; our analysis indicated that gross primary production can be accurately modeled even if soil moisture content is not. Instead, difficulties in adequately modeling ecosystem respiration, mainly autotrophic respiration, appeared to be the fundamental cause of model-data mismatch.

AB - [1] Semiarid forests are very sensitive to climatic change and among the most difficult ecosystems to accurately model. We tested the performance of the Biome-BGC model against eddy flux data taken from young (years 2004–2008), mature (years 2002–2008), and old-growth (year 2000) ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon, and subsequently examined several potential causes for model-data mismatch. We used the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology, which involved 500,000 model runs for each stand (1,500,000 total). Each simulation was run with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) that were compared to measured eddy flux data. Simulations for the young stand exhibited the highest level of performance, though they overestimated ecosystem C accumulation (−NEE) 99% of the time. Among the simulations for the mature and old-growth stands, 100% and 99% of the simulations underestimated ecosystem C accumulation. One obvious area of model-data mismatch is soil moisture, which was overestimated by the model in the young and old-growth stands yet underestimated in the mature stand. However, modeled estimates of soil water content and associated water deficits did not appear to be the primary cause of model-data mismatch; our analysis indicated that gross primary production can be accurately modeled even if soil moisture content is not. Instead, difficulties in adequately modeling ecosystem respiration, mainly autotrophic respiration, appeared to be the fundamental cause of model-data mismatch.

KW - model-data synthesis

KW - Biome-BGC

KW - biogeochemistry

KW - net ecosystem exchange

KW - Ameriflux

KW - GLUE

U2 - 10.1029/2009JG001146

DO - 10.1029/2009JG001146

M3 - Journal article

VL - 116

JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

SN - 2169-8961

IS - G2

M1 - G02008

ER -