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Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. / Beven, Keith J.
In: Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1993, p. 41-51.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Beven, KJ 1993, 'Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling.', Advances in Water Resources, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 41-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E

APA

Beven, K. J. (1993). Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. Advances in Water Resources, 16(1), 41-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E

Vancouver

Beven KJ. Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. Advances in Water Resources. 1993;16(1):41-51. doi: 10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E

Author

Beven, Keith J. / Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. In: Advances in Water Resources. 1993 ; Vol. 16, No. 1. pp. 41-51.

Bibtex

@article{69917b558e1841f9bff16cb709bd70b3,
title = "Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling.",
abstract = "Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.",
keywords = "Distributed hydrological models, calibration, validation, uncertainty estimation, value of data, Monte Carlo methods",
author = "Beven, {Keith J.}",
year = "1993",
doi = "10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
pages = "41--51",
journal = "Advances in Water Resources",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling.

AU - Beven, Keith J.

PY - 1993

Y1 - 1993

N2 - Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.

AB - Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.

KW - Distributed hydrological models

KW - calibration

KW - validation

KW - uncertainty estimation

KW - value of data

KW - Monte Carlo methods

U2 - 10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E

DO - 10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E

M3 - Journal article

VL - 16

SP - 41

EP - 51

JO - Advances in Water Resources

JF - Advances in Water Resources

IS - 1

ER -