Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - PSO-based high order time invariant fuzzy time series method
T2 - Application to stock exchange data
AU - Egrioglu, Erol
PY - 2014/1/1
Y1 - 2014/1/1
N2 - Fuzzy time series methods are effective techniques to forecast time series. Fuzzy time series methods are based on fuzzy set theory. In the early years, classical fuzzy set operations were used in the fuzzy time series methods. In recent years, artificial intelligence techniques have been used in different stages of fuzzy time series methods. In this paper, a novel fuzzy time series method which is based on particle swarm optimization is proposed. A high order fuzzy time series forecasting model is used in the proposed method. In the proposed method, determination of fuzzy relations is performed by estimating the optimal fuzzy relation matrix. The performance of the proposed method is compared to some methods in the literature by using three real world time series. It is shown that the proposed method has better performance than other methods in the literature.
AB - Fuzzy time series methods are effective techniques to forecast time series. Fuzzy time series methods are based on fuzzy set theory. In the early years, classical fuzzy set operations were used in the fuzzy time series methods. In recent years, artificial intelligence techniques have been used in different stages of fuzzy time series methods. In this paper, a novel fuzzy time series method which is based on particle swarm optimization is proposed. A high order fuzzy time series forecasting model is used in the proposed method. In the proposed method, determination of fuzzy relations is performed by estimating the optimal fuzzy relation matrix. The performance of the proposed method is compared to some methods in the literature by using three real world time series. It is shown that the proposed method has better performance than other methods in the literature.
KW - Define fuzzy relation
KW - Forecasting
KW - Fuzzy c-means
KW - Fuzzy time series
KW - Particle swarm optimization
U2 - 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.02.017
DO - 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.02.017
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:84896542209
VL - 38
SP - 633
EP - 639
JO - Economic Modelling
JF - Economic Modelling
SN - 0264-9993
ER -