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Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

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Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. / Gauss, M ; Myhre, G ; Pitari, G ; Prather, M J ; Isaksen, I S A ; Berntsen, T K ; Brasseur, G P ; Dentener, F J ; Derwent, R G ; Hauglustaine, D A ; Horowitz, L W ; Jacob, D J ; Johnson, M ; Law, K S ; Mickley, L J ; Muller, J F ; Plantevin, P H ; Pyle, J A ; Rogers, H L ; Stevenson, D S ; Sundet, J K ; van Weele, M ; Wild, O .

In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 108, No. D9, 4292, 13.05.2003, p. -.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Gauss, M, Myhre, G, Pitari, G, Prather, MJ, Isaksen, ISA, Berntsen, TK, Brasseur, GP, Dentener, FJ, Derwent, RG, Hauglustaine, DA, Horowitz, LW, Jacob, DJ, Johnson, M, Law, KS, Mickley, LJ, Muller, JF, Plantevin, PH, Pyle, JA, Rogers, HL, Stevenson, DS, Sundet, JK, van Weele, M & Wild, O 2003, 'Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere', Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 108, no. D9, 4292, pp. -. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002624

APA

Gauss, M., Myhre, G., Pitari, G., Prather, M. J., Isaksen, I. S. A., Berntsen, T. K., Brasseur, G. P., Dentener, F. J., Derwent, R. G., Hauglustaine, D. A., Horowitz, L. W., Jacob, D. J., Johnson, M., Law, K. S., Mickley, L. J., Muller, J. F., Plantevin, P. H., Pyle, J. A., Rogers, H. L., ... Wild, O. (2003). Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 108(D9), -. [4292]. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002624

Vancouver

Gauss M, Myhre G, Pitari G, Prather MJ, Isaksen ISA, Berntsen TK et al. Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2003 May 13;108(D9):-. 4292. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002624

Author

Gauss, M ; Myhre, G ; Pitari, G ; Prather, M J ; Isaksen, I S A ; Berntsen, T K ; Brasseur, G P ; Dentener, F J ; Derwent, R G ; Hauglustaine, D A ; Horowitz, L W ; Jacob, D J ; Johnson, M ; Law, K S ; Mickley, L J ; Muller, J F ; Plantevin, P H ; Pyle, J A ; Rogers, H L ; Stevenson, D S ; Sundet, J K ; van Weele, M ; Wild, O . / Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2003 ; Vol. 108, No. D9. pp. -.

Bibtex

@article{1aff68a5e10248068b7d63589732cf0e,
title = "Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere",
abstract = "Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison ({"}OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the {"}SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m(-2) on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m(-2). The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change.",
keywords = "CHEMICAL-TRANSPORT MODEL, GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL, SEMI-LAGRANGIAN TRANSPORT, AIRCRAFT MOZAIC DATA, TRACER TRANSPORT, ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT, 3-DIMENSIONAL MODEL, PHOTOCHEMICAL MODEL, GLOBAL TROPOSPHERE, NITROGEN-OXIDES",
author = "M Gauss and G Myhre and G Pitari and Prather, {M J} and Isaksen, {I S A} and Berntsen, {T K} and Brasseur, {G P} and Dentener, {F J} and Derwent, {R G} and Hauglustaine, {D A} and Horowitz, {L W} and Jacob, {D J} and M Johnson and Law, {K S} and Mickley, {L J} and Muller, {J F} and Plantevin, {P H} and Pyle, {J A} and Rogers, {H L} and Stevenson, {D S} and Sundet, {J K} and {van Weele}, M and O Wild",
year = "2003",
month = may,
day = "13",
doi = "10.1029/2002JD002624",
language = "English",
volume = "108",
pages = "--",
journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres",
issn = "0747-7309",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd",
number = "D9",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

AU - Gauss, M

AU - Myhre, G

AU - Pitari, G

AU - Prather, M J

AU - Isaksen, I S A

AU - Berntsen, T K

AU - Brasseur, G P

AU - Dentener, F J

AU - Derwent, R G

AU - Hauglustaine, D A

AU - Horowitz, L W

AU - Jacob, D J

AU - Johnson, M

AU - Law, K S

AU - Mickley, L J

AU - Muller, J F

AU - Plantevin, P H

AU - Pyle, J A

AU - Rogers, H L

AU - Stevenson, D S

AU - Sundet, J K

AU - van Weele, M

AU - Wild, O

PY - 2003/5/13

Y1 - 2003/5/13

N2 - Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison ("OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the "SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m(-2) on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m(-2). The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change.

AB - Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison ("OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the "SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m(-2) on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m(-2). The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change.

KW - CHEMICAL-TRANSPORT MODEL

KW - GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL

KW - SEMI-LAGRANGIAN TRANSPORT

KW - AIRCRAFT MOZAIC DATA

KW - TRACER TRANSPORT

KW - ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT

KW - 3-DIMENSIONAL MODEL

KW - PHOTOCHEMICAL MODEL

KW - GLOBAL TROPOSPHERE

KW - NITROGEN-OXIDES

U2 - 10.1029/2002JD002624

DO - 10.1029/2002JD002624

M3 - Journal article

VL - 108

SP - -

JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

SN - 0747-7309

IS - D9

M1 - 4292

ER -