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Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

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Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi. / Gauld, Jillian S; Bilima, Sithembile; Diggle, Peter J et al.

In: Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 150, e122, 10.05.2022.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Gauld, JS, Bilima, S, Diggle, PJ, Feasey, NA & Read, JM 2022, 'Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 150, e122. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268822000759

APA

Gauld, J. S., Bilima, S., Diggle, P. J., Feasey, N. A., & Read, J. M. (2022). Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi. Epidemiology and Infection, 150, [e122]. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268822000759

Vancouver

Gauld JS, Bilima S, Diggle PJ, Feasey NA, Read JM. Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi. Epidemiology and Infection. 2022 May 10;150:e122. doi: 10.1017/S0950268822000759

Author

Gauld, Jillian S ; Bilima, Sithembile ; Diggle, Peter J et al. / Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi. In: Epidemiology and Infection. 2022 ; Vol. 150.

Bibtex

@article{24169c7c692d4c9eba7d79a98a6b15da,
title = "Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi",
abstract = "Typhoid fever is a major cause of illness and mortality in low- and middle-income settings. We investigated the association of typhoid fever and rainfall in Blantyre, Malawi, where multi-drug-resistant typhoid has been transmitting since 2011. Peak rainfall preceded the peak in typhoid fever by approximately 15 weeks [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.3, 17.7], indicating no direct biological link. A quasi-Poisson generalised linear modelling framework was used to explore the relationship between rainfall and typhoid incidence at biologically plausible lags of 1-4 weeks. We found a protective effect of rainfall anomalies on typhoid fever, at a two-week lag ( P = 0.006), where a 10 mm lower-than-expected rainfall anomaly was associated with up to a 16% reduction in cases (95% CI 7.6, 26.5). Extreme flooding events may cleanse the environment of S. Typhi, while unusually low rainfall may reduce exposure from sewage overflow. These results add to evidence that rainfall anomalies may play a role in the transmission of enteric pathogens, and can help direct future water and sanitation intervention strategies for the control of typhoid fever. ",
keywords = "Typhoid fever, rainfall, weather, statistical analysis",
author = "Gauld, {Jillian S} and Sithembile Bilima and Diggle, {Peter J} and Feasey, {Nicholas A} and Read, {Jonathan M}",
year = "2022",
month = may,
day = "10",
doi = "10.1017/S0950268822000759",
language = "English",
volume = "150",
journal = "Epidemiology and Infection",
issn = "0950-2688",
publisher = "Cambridge University Press",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

AU - Gauld, Jillian S

AU - Bilima, Sithembile

AU - Diggle, Peter J

AU - Feasey, Nicholas A

AU - Read, Jonathan M

PY - 2022/5/10

Y1 - 2022/5/10

N2 - Typhoid fever is a major cause of illness and mortality in low- and middle-income settings. We investigated the association of typhoid fever and rainfall in Blantyre, Malawi, where multi-drug-resistant typhoid has been transmitting since 2011. Peak rainfall preceded the peak in typhoid fever by approximately 15 weeks [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.3, 17.7], indicating no direct biological link. A quasi-Poisson generalised linear modelling framework was used to explore the relationship between rainfall and typhoid incidence at biologically plausible lags of 1-4 weeks. We found a protective effect of rainfall anomalies on typhoid fever, at a two-week lag ( P = 0.006), where a 10 mm lower-than-expected rainfall anomaly was associated with up to a 16% reduction in cases (95% CI 7.6, 26.5). Extreme flooding events may cleanse the environment of S. Typhi, while unusually low rainfall may reduce exposure from sewage overflow. These results add to evidence that rainfall anomalies may play a role in the transmission of enteric pathogens, and can help direct future water and sanitation intervention strategies for the control of typhoid fever.

AB - Typhoid fever is a major cause of illness and mortality in low- and middle-income settings. We investigated the association of typhoid fever and rainfall in Blantyre, Malawi, where multi-drug-resistant typhoid has been transmitting since 2011. Peak rainfall preceded the peak in typhoid fever by approximately 15 weeks [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.3, 17.7], indicating no direct biological link. A quasi-Poisson generalised linear modelling framework was used to explore the relationship between rainfall and typhoid incidence at biologically plausible lags of 1-4 weeks. We found a protective effect of rainfall anomalies on typhoid fever, at a two-week lag ( P = 0.006), where a 10 mm lower-than-expected rainfall anomaly was associated with up to a 16% reduction in cases (95% CI 7.6, 26.5). Extreme flooding events may cleanse the environment of S. Typhi, while unusually low rainfall may reduce exposure from sewage overflow. These results add to evidence that rainfall anomalies may play a role in the transmission of enteric pathogens, and can help direct future water and sanitation intervention strategies for the control of typhoid fever.

KW - Typhoid fever

KW - rainfall

KW - weather

KW - statistical analysis

U2 - 10.1017/S0950268822000759

DO - 10.1017/S0950268822000759

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 35535751

VL - 150

JO - Epidemiology and Infection

JF - Epidemiology and Infection

SN - 0950-2688

M1 - e122

ER -