Final published version
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Reconstructing spatiotemporal dynamics in hydrological state along intermittent rivers
AU - Eastman, M.
AU - Parry, S.
AU - Sefton, C.
AU - Park, J.
AU - England, J.
PY - 2021/2/14
Y1 - 2021/2/14
N2 - Despite the impact of flow cessation on aquatic ecology, the hydrology of intermittent rivers has been largely overlooked. This has resulted in a lack of monitoring projects, and consequently, datasets spanning a period of sufficient duration to characterise both hydrological extremes. This report documents an investigation into the potential for statistical modelling to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of flowing, ponded and dry hydrological states in an internationally rare hydrological state dataset. The models presented predict unrecorded hydrological state data with performance metrics exceeding 95%, providing insights into the relationship between ponding prevalence and the performance of statistical simulation of this ecologically important intermediate state between drying and flowing conditions. This work demonstrates the potential for hydrological intermittence to be simulated in areas where hydrological state data are often sparse, providing opportunities for quality control and data infilling. This further understanding of the processes driving intermittence will inform future water resource assessments and the influence of climate change on hydrological intermittence.
AB - Despite the impact of flow cessation on aquatic ecology, the hydrology of intermittent rivers has been largely overlooked. This has resulted in a lack of monitoring projects, and consequently, datasets spanning a period of sufficient duration to characterise both hydrological extremes. This report documents an investigation into the potential for statistical modelling to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of flowing, ponded and dry hydrological states in an internationally rare hydrological state dataset. The models presented predict unrecorded hydrological state data with performance metrics exceeding 95%, providing insights into the relationship between ponding prevalence and the performance of statistical simulation of this ecologically important intermediate state between drying and flowing conditions. This work demonstrates the potential for hydrological intermittence to be simulated in areas where hydrological state data are often sparse, providing opportunities for quality control and data infilling. This further understanding of the processes driving intermittence will inform future water resource assessments and the influence of climate change on hydrological intermittence.
KW - Chalk streams
KW - Chilterns
KW - Cumulative logit model
KW - Ephemeral streams
KW - Low flows
KW - Network contraction
KW - Ordinal regression
KW - Temporary streams
KW - Ecology
KW - Water resources
KW - Hydrological extremes
KW - Intermediate state
KW - Intermittent rivers
KW - Performance metrics
KW - Resource assessments
KW - Spatio-temporal dynamics
KW - Statistical modelling
KW - Statistical simulation
KW - Climate change
U2 - 10.3390/w13040493
DO - 10.3390/w13040493
M3 - Journal article
VL - 13
JO - Water
JF - Water
SN - 2073-4441
IS - 4
M1 - 493
ER -