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Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events

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Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. / Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Litsa, Akrivi; Petropoulos, Fotios et al.
In: Journal of Business Research, Vol. 68, No. 8, 08.2015, p. 1785-1791.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Nikolopoulos, K, Litsa, A, Petropoulos, F, Bougioukos, V & Khammash, M 2015, 'Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events', Journal of Business Research, vol. 68, no. 8, pp. 1785-1791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

APA

Nikolopoulos, K., Litsa, A., Petropoulos, F., Bougioukos, V., & Khammash, M. (2015). Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. Journal of Business Research, 68(8), 1785-1791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

Vancouver

Nikolopoulos K, Litsa A, Petropoulos F, Bougioukos V, Khammash M. Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. Journal of Business Research. 2015 Aug;68(8):1785-1791. Epub 2015 Mar 29. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

Author

Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos ; Litsa, Akrivi ; Petropoulos, Fotios et al. / Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events. In: Journal of Business Research. 2015 ; Vol. 68, No. 8. pp. 1785-1791.

Bibtex

@article{1613fb7f5a064ed7b1524323a57c0df7,
title = "Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events",
abstract = "Forecasting special events such as conflicts and epidemics can be very challenging, not only due to the nature of those events but also for the limited amount of historical information from which a reference base can be built. The present study evaluates structured analogies, Delphi and interaction groups for forecasting the impact of such events. Empirical evidence reveals that when using structured analogies an average accuracy improvement of 5.1% is achieved compared to unaided judgment. This improvement is greater when: a) the level of expertise increases, b) more analogies are used, c) more-relevant analogies are used, and d) pooling of analogies is introduced through interaction of the experts. Furthermore, group judgmental forecasting approaches illustrated promising results with Delphi group having an improved accuracy of 22.3% and Interaction Group of 40.6% respectively.",
keywords = "Judgmental Forecasting, Structured Analogies, Delphi, Interaction Groups, Governmental Forecasting ",
author = "Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Akrivi Litsa and Fotios Petropoulos and Vasileios Bougioukos and Marwan Khammash",
year = "2015",
month = aug,
doi = "10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037",
language = "English",
volume = "68",
pages = "1785--1791",
journal = "Journal of Business Research",
issn = "0148-2963",
publisher = "Elsevier Inc.",
number = "8",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events

AU - Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos

AU - Litsa, Akrivi

AU - Petropoulos, Fotios

AU - Bougioukos, Vasileios

AU - Khammash, Marwan

PY - 2015/8

Y1 - 2015/8

N2 - Forecasting special events such as conflicts and epidemics can be very challenging, not only due to the nature of those events but also for the limited amount of historical information from which a reference base can be built. The present study evaluates structured analogies, Delphi and interaction groups for forecasting the impact of such events. Empirical evidence reveals that when using structured analogies an average accuracy improvement of 5.1% is achieved compared to unaided judgment. This improvement is greater when: a) the level of expertise increases, b) more analogies are used, c) more-relevant analogies are used, and d) pooling of analogies is introduced through interaction of the experts. Furthermore, group judgmental forecasting approaches illustrated promising results with Delphi group having an improved accuracy of 22.3% and Interaction Group of 40.6% respectively.

AB - Forecasting special events such as conflicts and epidemics can be very challenging, not only due to the nature of those events but also for the limited amount of historical information from which a reference base can be built. The present study evaluates structured analogies, Delphi and interaction groups for forecasting the impact of such events. Empirical evidence reveals that when using structured analogies an average accuracy improvement of 5.1% is achieved compared to unaided judgment. This improvement is greater when: a) the level of expertise increases, b) more analogies are used, c) more-relevant analogies are used, and d) pooling of analogies is introduced through interaction of the experts. Furthermore, group judgmental forecasting approaches illustrated promising results with Delphi group having an improved accuracy of 22.3% and Interaction Group of 40.6% respectively.

KW - Judgmental Forecasting

KW - Structured Analogies

KW - Delphi

KW - Interaction Groups

KW - Governmental Forecasting

U2 - 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

DO - 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037

M3 - Journal article

VL - 68

SP - 1785

EP - 1791

JO - Journal of Business Research

JF - Journal of Business Research

SN - 0148-2963

IS - 8

ER -