Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events
AU - Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos
AU - Litsa, Akrivi
AU - Petropoulos, Fotios
AU - Bougioukos, Vasileios
AU - Khammash, Marwan
PY - 2015/8
Y1 - 2015/8
N2 - Forecasting special events such as conflicts and epidemics can be very challenging, not only due to the nature of those events but also for the limited amount of historical information from which a reference base can be built. The present study evaluates structured analogies, Delphi and interaction groups for forecasting the impact of such events. Empirical evidence reveals that when using structured analogies an average accuracy improvement of 5.1% is achieved compared to unaided judgment. This improvement is greater when: a) the level of expertise increases, b) more analogies are used, c) more-relevant analogies are used, and d) pooling of analogies is introduced through interaction of the experts. Furthermore, group judgmental forecasting approaches illustrated promising results with Delphi group having an improved accuracy of 22.3% and Interaction Group of 40.6% respectively.
AB - Forecasting special events such as conflicts and epidemics can be very challenging, not only due to the nature of those events but also for the limited amount of historical information from which a reference base can be built. The present study evaluates structured analogies, Delphi and interaction groups for forecasting the impact of such events. Empirical evidence reveals that when using structured analogies an average accuracy improvement of 5.1% is achieved compared to unaided judgment. This improvement is greater when: a) the level of expertise increases, b) more analogies are used, c) more-relevant analogies are used, and d) pooling of analogies is introduced through interaction of the experts. Furthermore, group judgmental forecasting approaches illustrated promising results with Delphi group having an improved accuracy of 22.3% and Interaction Group of 40.6% respectively.
KW - Judgmental Forecasting
KW - Structured Analogies
KW - Delphi
KW - Interaction Groups
KW - Governmental Forecasting
U2 - 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037
DO - 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.037
M3 - Journal article
VL - 68
SP - 1785
EP - 1791
JO - Journal of Business Research
JF - Journal of Business Research
SN - 0148-2963
IS - 8
ER -