TY - JOUR

T1 - Reply to Discussion of "Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems

T2 - a flood risk change example"(*)

AU - Westerberg, Ida K.

AU - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

AU - Beven, Keith J.

AU - Coxon, Gemma

AU - Krueger, Tobias

N1 - This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 03/12/2018, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02626667.2018.1547505

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models - making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a "certified" scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as "pragmatic realists" in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.

AB - Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models - making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a "certified" scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as "pragmatic realists" in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.

KW - uncertainty

KW - socio-hydrology

KW - perceptual model

KW - flood risk

KW - change analysis

U2 - 10.1080/02626667.2018.1547505

DO - 10.1080/02626667.2018.1547505

M3 - Editorial

VL - 63

SP - 2001

EP - 2003

JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal

JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal

SN - 0262-6667

IS - 13-14

ER -