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    Rights statement: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Duvat, VKE, Magnan, AK, Perry, CT, et al. Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes. WIREs Clim Change. 2021; 12:e700. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700 which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.700 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

    Accepted author manuscript, 3.83 MB, PDF document

    Embargo ends: 20/01/22

    Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

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Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes

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Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes. / Duvat, V.K.E.; Magnan, A.K.; Perry, C.T.; Spencer, T.; Bell, J.D.; Wabnitz, C.; Webb, A.P.; White, I.; McInnes, K.L.; Gattuso, J.-P.; Graham, N.A.J.; Nunn, P.D.; Le Cozannet, G.

In: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 12, No. 3, e700, 31.05.2021.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Duvat, VKE, Magnan, AK, Perry, CT, Spencer, T, Bell, JD, Wabnitz, C, Webb, AP, White, I, McInnes, KL, Gattuso, J-P, Graham, NAJ, Nunn, PD & Le Cozannet, G 2021, 'Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes', Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol. 12, no. 3, e700. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700

APA

Duvat, V. K. E., Magnan, A. K., Perry, C. T., Spencer, T., Bell, J. D., Wabnitz, C., Webb, A. P., White, I., McInnes, K. L., Gattuso, J-P., Graham, N. A. J., Nunn, P. D., & Le Cozannet, G. (2021). Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 12(3), [e700]. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700

Vancouver

Duvat VKE, Magnan AK, Perry CT, Spencer T, Bell JD, Wabnitz C et al. Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2021 May 31;12(3). e700. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700

Author

Duvat, V.K.E. ; Magnan, A.K. ; Perry, C.T. ; Spencer, T. ; Bell, J.D. ; Wabnitz, C. ; Webb, A.P. ; White, I. ; McInnes, K.L. ; Gattuso, J.-P. ; Graham, N.A.J. ; Nunn, P.D. ; Le Cozannet, G. / Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes. In: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2021 ; Vol. 12, No. 3.

Bibtex

@article{2290f037fb4b446d91c0ef5d6d1810cf,
title = "Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes",
abstract = "Recent assessments of future risk to atoll habitability have focused on island erosion and submergence, and have overlooked the effects of other climate-related drivers, as well as differences between ocean basins and island types. Here we investigate the cumulative risk arising from multiple drivers (sea-level rise; changes in rainfall, ocean–atmosphere oscillations and tropical cyclone intensity; ocean warming and acidification) to five Habitability Pillars: Land, Freshwater supply, Food supply, Settlements and infrastructure, and Economic activities. Risk is assessed for urban and rural islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, in 2050 and 2090, and considering a moderate adaptation scenario. Risks will be highest in the Western Pacific which will experience increased island destabilization together with a high threat to freshwater, and decreased land-based and marine food supply from reef-dependent fish and tuna and tuna-like resources. Risk accumulation will occur at a lower rate in the Central Pacific (lower pressure on land, with more limited cascading effects on other Habitability Pillars; increase in pelagic fish stocks) and the Central Indian Ocean (mostly experiencing increased land destabilization and reef degradation). Risk levels will vary significantly between urban islands, depending on geomorphology and local shoreline disturbances. Rural islands will experience less contrasting risk levels, but higher risks than urban islands in the second half of the century. This article is categorized under: Trans-Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews. ",
keywords = "atolls, climate change impacts, habitability, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, reef island, Economics, Fish, Food supply, Hurricanes, Reefs, Risk perception, Sea level, Storms, Water, Adaptation scenarios, Cascading effects, Disciplinary perspective, Economic activities, Environmental change, Freshwater supply, Reef degradation, Tropical cyclone intensity, Risk assessment",
author = "V.K.E. Duvat and A.K. Magnan and C.T. Perry and T. Spencer and J.D. Bell and C. Wabnitz and A.P. Webb and I. White and K.L. McInnes and J.-P. Gattuso and N.A.J. Graham and P.D. Nunn and {Le Cozannet}, G.",
note = "This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Duvat, VKE, Magnan, AK, Perry, CT, et al. Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes. WIREs Clim Change. 2021; 12:e700. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700 which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.700 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving. ",
year = "2021",
month = may,
day = "31",
doi = "10.1002/wcc.700",
language = "English",
volume = "12",
journal = "Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change",
issn = "1757-7780",
publisher = "Blackwell-Wiley",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes

AU - Duvat, V.K.E.

AU - Magnan, A.K.

AU - Perry, C.T.

AU - Spencer, T.

AU - Bell, J.D.

AU - Wabnitz, C.

AU - Webb, A.P.

AU - White, I.

AU - McInnes, K.L.

AU - Gattuso, J.-P.

AU - Graham, N.A.J.

AU - Nunn, P.D.

AU - Le Cozannet, G.

N1 - This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Duvat, VKE, Magnan, AK, Perry, CT, et al. Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes. WIREs Clim Change. 2021; 12:e700. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700 which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.700 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

PY - 2021/5/31

Y1 - 2021/5/31

N2 - Recent assessments of future risk to atoll habitability have focused on island erosion and submergence, and have overlooked the effects of other climate-related drivers, as well as differences between ocean basins and island types. Here we investigate the cumulative risk arising from multiple drivers (sea-level rise; changes in rainfall, ocean–atmosphere oscillations and tropical cyclone intensity; ocean warming and acidification) to five Habitability Pillars: Land, Freshwater supply, Food supply, Settlements and infrastructure, and Economic activities. Risk is assessed for urban and rural islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, in 2050 and 2090, and considering a moderate adaptation scenario. Risks will be highest in the Western Pacific which will experience increased island destabilization together with a high threat to freshwater, and decreased land-based and marine food supply from reef-dependent fish and tuna and tuna-like resources. Risk accumulation will occur at a lower rate in the Central Pacific (lower pressure on land, with more limited cascading effects on other Habitability Pillars; increase in pelagic fish stocks) and the Central Indian Ocean (mostly experiencing increased land destabilization and reef degradation). Risk levels will vary significantly between urban islands, depending on geomorphology and local shoreline disturbances. Rural islands will experience less contrasting risk levels, but higher risks than urban islands in the second half of the century. This article is categorized under: Trans-Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews. 

AB - Recent assessments of future risk to atoll habitability have focused on island erosion and submergence, and have overlooked the effects of other climate-related drivers, as well as differences between ocean basins and island types. Here we investigate the cumulative risk arising from multiple drivers (sea-level rise; changes in rainfall, ocean–atmosphere oscillations and tropical cyclone intensity; ocean warming and acidification) to five Habitability Pillars: Land, Freshwater supply, Food supply, Settlements and infrastructure, and Economic activities. Risk is assessed for urban and rural islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, in 2050 and 2090, and considering a moderate adaptation scenario. Risks will be highest in the Western Pacific which will experience increased island destabilization together with a high threat to freshwater, and decreased land-based and marine food supply from reef-dependent fish and tuna and tuna-like resources. Risk accumulation will occur at a lower rate in the Central Pacific (lower pressure on land, with more limited cascading effects on other Habitability Pillars; increase in pelagic fish stocks) and the Central Indian Ocean (mostly experiencing increased land destabilization and reef degradation). Risk levels will vary significantly between urban islands, depending on geomorphology and local shoreline disturbances. Rural islands will experience less contrasting risk levels, but higher risks than urban islands in the second half of the century. This article is categorized under: Trans-Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews. 

KW - atolls

KW - climate change impacts

KW - habitability

KW - Indian Ocean

KW - Pacific Ocean

KW - reef island

KW - Economics

KW - Fish

KW - Food supply

KW - Hurricanes

KW - Reefs

KW - Risk perception

KW - Sea level

KW - Storms

KW - Water

KW - Adaptation scenarios

KW - Cascading effects

KW - Disciplinary perspective

KW - Economic activities

KW - Environmental change

KW - Freshwater supply

KW - Reef degradation

KW - Tropical cyclone intensity

KW - Risk assessment

U2 - 10.1002/wcc.700

DO - 10.1002/wcc.700

M3 - Journal article

VL - 12

JO - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

JF - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

SN - 1757-7780

IS - 3

M1 - e700

ER -