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Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels

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Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels. / Field, J.L.; Richard, T.L.; Smithwick, E.A.H. et al.

In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 117, No. 36, 08.09.2020, p. 21968-21977.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Field, JL, Richard, TL, Smithwick, EAH, Cai, H, Laser, MS, LeBauer, DS, Long, SP, Paustian, K, Qin, Z, Sheehan, JJ, Smith, P, Wang, MQ & Lynd, LR 2020, 'Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 117, no. 36, pp. 21968-21977. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920877117

APA

Field, J. L., Richard, T. L., Smithwick, E. A. H., Cai, H., Laser, M. S., LeBauer, D. S., Long, S. P., Paustian, K., Qin, Z., Sheehan, J. J., Smith, P., Wang, M. Q., & Lynd, L. R. (2020). Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(36), 21968-21977. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920877117

Vancouver

Field JL, Richard TL, Smithwick EAH, Cai H, Laser MS, LeBauer DS et al. Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020 Sep 8;117(36):21968-21977. Epub 2020 Aug 24. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1920877117

Author

Field, J.L. ; Richard, T.L. ; Smithwick, E.A.H. et al. / Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020 ; Vol. 117, No. 36. pp. 21968-21977.

Bibtex

@article{663f8448a20443c281625cdc0f413475,
title = "Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels",
abstract = "Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a near-term, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge. ",
keywords = "BECCS, Biofuels, Ecosystem modeling, Life cycle assessment, Negative emissions",
author = "J.L. Field and T.L. Richard and E.A.H. Smithwick and H. Cai and M.S. Laser and D.S. LeBauer and S.P. Long and K. Paustian and Z. Qin and J.J. Sheehan and P. Smith and M.Q. Wang and L.R. Lynd",
year = "2020",
month = sep,
day = "8",
doi = "10.1073/pnas.1920877117",
language = "English",
volume = "117",
pages = "21968--21977",
journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
issn = "0027-8424",
publisher = "National Academy of Sciences",
number = "36",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels

AU - Field, J.L.

AU - Richard, T.L.

AU - Smithwick, E.A.H.

AU - Cai, H.

AU - Laser, M.S.

AU - LeBauer, D.S.

AU - Long, S.P.

AU - Paustian, K.

AU - Qin, Z.

AU - Sheehan, J.J.

AU - Smith, P.

AU - Wang, M.Q.

AU - Lynd, L.R.

PY - 2020/9/8

Y1 - 2020/9/8

N2 - Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a near-term, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge.

AB - Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a near-term, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge.

KW - BECCS

KW - Biofuels

KW - Ecosystem modeling

KW - Life cycle assessment

KW - Negative emissions

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1920877117

DO - 10.1073/pnas.1920877117

M3 - Journal article

VL - 117

SP - 21968

EP - 21977

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

SN - 0027-8424

IS - 36

ER -