Final published version
Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa
T2 - exploratory studies for large lakes
AU - Sene, Kevin
AU - Tych, Wlodek
PY - 2021/11/16
Y1 - 2021/11/16
N2 - For many applications, it would be extremely useful to have insights into river flows at timescales of a few weeks to months ahead. However, seasonal predictions of this type are necessarily probabilistic which raises challenges both in generating forecasts and their interpretation. Despite this, an increasing number of studies have shown promising results and this is an active area for research. In this paper, we discuss insights gained from previous studies using a novel combined water balance and data-driven approach for two of Africa's largest lakes, Lake Victoria and Lake Malawi. Factors which increased predictability included the unusually long hydrological response times and statistically significant links to ocean-atmosphere processes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Other lessons learned included the benefits of data assimilation and the need for care in the choice of performance metrics.
AB - For many applications, it would be extremely useful to have insights into river flows at timescales of a few weeks to months ahead. However, seasonal predictions of this type are necessarily probabilistic which raises challenges both in generating forecasts and their interpretation. Despite this, an increasing number of studies have shown promising results and this is an active area for research. In this paper, we discuss insights gained from previous studies using a novel combined water balance and data-driven approach for two of Africa's largest lakes, Lake Victoria and Lake Malawi. Factors which increased predictability included the unusually long hydrological response times and statistically significant links to ocean-atmosphere processes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Other lessons learned included the benefits of data assimilation and the need for care in the choice of performance metrics.
U2 - 10.5194/piahs-384-289-2021
DO - 10.5194/piahs-384-289-2021
M3 - Journal article
VL - 384
SP - 289
EP - 293
JO - Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
JF - Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
SN - 2199-899X
ER -