Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Shadow economy
T2 - does it matter for money velocity?
AU - Onnis, Luisanna
AU - Tirelli, Patrizio
PY - 2015/11
Y1 - 2015/11
N2 - The standard approach adopted in the literature exploits data on money demand to extrapolate the dynamics of the unobserved economic activity. In this paper, we explore instead the long-run effects of shadow economy measures—obtained independently from money demand functions—on the velocity of circulation of money. Empirical evidence from a panel covering 43 countries over the period 1981–2005 shows that variations in the relative size of the unrecorded sector have a negative and significant effect on the velocity of circulation of money. This is because, ceteris paribus, the higher the share of the shadow economy, the higher the demand for currency and therefore the lower the velocity of circulation of money. The negative relation between underground economic activity and velocity of circulation of money is robust to the use of different shadow economy estimates, to a sub-sample analysis and to the inclusion of a time trend.
AB - The standard approach adopted in the literature exploits data on money demand to extrapolate the dynamics of the unobserved economic activity. In this paper, we explore instead the long-run effects of shadow economy measures—obtained independently from money demand functions—on the velocity of circulation of money. Empirical evidence from a panel covering 43 countries over the period 1981–2005 shows that variations in the relative size of the unrecorded sector have a negative and significant effect on the velocity of circulation of money. This is because, ceteris paribus, the higher the share of the shadow economy, the higher the demand for currency and therefore the lower the velocity of circulation of money. The negative relation between underground economic activity and velocity of circulation of money is robust to the use of different shadow economy estimates, to a sub-sample analysis and to the inclusion of a time trend.
KW - Money velocity
KW - Money demand
KW - Shadow economy
KW - Informal sector
U2 - 10.1007/s00181-015-0914-2
DO - 10.1007/s00181-015-0914-2
M3 - Journal article
VL - 49
SP - 839
EP - 858
JO - Empirical Economics
JF - Empirical Economics
SN - 0377-7332
IS - 3
ER -