Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Applied Energy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Applied Energy, 222, 2018 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.155
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Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Short term electricity demand forecasting using partially linear additive quantile regression with an application to the unit commitment problem
AU - Lebotsa, Moshoko Emily
AU - Sigauke, Caston
AU - Bere, Alphonce
AU - Fildes, Robert
AU - Boylan, John E.
N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Applied Energy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Applied Energy, 222, 2018 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.155
PY - 2018/7/15
Y1 - 2018/7/15
N2 - Abstract Short term probabilistic load forecasting is essential for any power generating utility. This paper discusses an application of partially linear additive quantile regression models for predicting short term electricity demand during the peak demand hours (i.e. from 18:00 to 20:00) using South African data for January 2009 to June 2012. Additionally the bounded variable mixed integer linear programming technique is used on the forecasts obtained in order to find an optimal number of units to commit (switch on or off. Variable selection is done using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Results from the unit commitment problem show that it is very costly to use gas fired generating units. These were not selected as part of the optimal solution. It is shown that the optimal solutions based on median forecasts ( Q 0.5 quantile forecasts) are the same as those from the 99th quantile forecasts except for generating unit g 8 c , which is a coal fired unit. This shows that for any increase in demand above the median quantile forecasts it will be economical to increase the generation of electricity from generating unit g 8 c . The main contribution of this study is in the use of nonlinear trend variables and the combining of forecasting with the unit commitment problem. The study should be useful to system operators in power utility companies in the unit commitment scheduling and dispatching of electricity at a minimal cost particularly during the peak period when the grid is constrained due to increased demand for electricity.
AB - Abstract Short term probabilistic load forecasting is essential for any power generating utility. This paper discusses an application of partially linear additive quantile regression models for predicting short term electricity demand during the peak demand hours (i.e. from 18:00 to 20:00) using South African data for January 2009 to June 2012. Additionally the bounded variable mixed integer linear programming technique is used on the forecasts obtained in order to find an optimal number of units to commit (switch on or off. Variable selection is done using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Results from the unit commitment problem show that it is very costly to use gas fired generating units. These were not selected as part of the optimal solution. It is shown that the optimal solutions based on median forecasts ( Q 0.5 quantile forecasts) are the same as those from the 99th quantile forecasts except for generating unit g 8 c , which is a coal fired unit. This shows that for any increase in demand above the median quantile forecasts it will be economical to increase the generation of electricity from generating unit g 8 c . The main contribution of this study is in the use of nonlinear trend variables and the combining of forecasting with the unit commitment problem. The study should be useful to system operators in power utility companies in the unit commitment scheduling and dispatching of electricity at a minimal cost particularly during the peak period when the grid is constrained due to increased demand for electricity.
KW - Lasso
KW - Mixed integer linear programming
KW - Quantile regression
KW - Short term peak load forecasting
KW - Unit commitment
U2 - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.155
DO - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.155
M3 - Journal article
VL - 222
SP - 104
EP - 118
JO - Applied Energy
JF - Applied Energy
SN - 0306-2619
ER -