Final published version
Licence: Unspecified
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame
AU - Collingwood, James
AU - Wright, Mike
AU - Brooks, Roger
PY - 2023/9/16
Y1 - 2023/9/16
N2 - This paper is the first to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model of a snooker frame, using post-match video analysis of over 30,000 shots to inform the probability that a top professional will pot a ball on each shot depending on the number of balls remaining on the table and the status of their current visit to the table. We demonstrate that this accurately reflects the progression of a frame at this level, advocating new approaches in viewing a frame as a succession of scoring visits and in using dynamic measures to evaluate player performance. The simulation model also produces a realistic expectation of the probability that the frame will be won from any given position. The model is then used to analyse the effectiveness of the break-off shot and the influence that this has on the outcome of the frame. We also use simulated outcomes to evaluate the choice between taking on a risky pot or playing safe and the merits of alternative approaches to escaping from a snooker.
AB - This paper is the first to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model of a snooker frame, using post-match video analysis of over 30,000 shots to inform the probability that a top professional will pot a ball on each shot depending on the number of balls remaining on the table and the status of their current visit to the table. We demonstrate that this accurately reflects the progression of a frame at this level, advocating new approaches in viewing a frame as a succession of scoring visits and in using dynamic measures to evaluate player performance. The simulation model also produces a realistic expectation of the probability that the frame will be won from any given position. The model is then used to analyse the effectiveness of the break-off shot and the influence that this has on the outcome of the frame. We also use simulated outcomes to evaluate the choice between taking on a risky pot or playing safe and the merits of alternative approaches to escaping from a snooker.
U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.11.012
DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.11.012
M3 - Journal article
VL - 309
SP - 1286
EP - 1299
JO - European Journal of Operational Research
JF - European Journal of Operational Research
SN - 0377-2217
IS - 3
ER -