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Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame

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Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame. / Collingwood, James; Wright, Mike; Brooks, Roger.
In: European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 309, No. 3, 16.09.2023, p. 1286-1299.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

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Collingwood J, Wright M, Brooks R. Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame. European Journal of Operational Research. 2023 Sept 16;309(3):1286-1299. Epub 2023 Apr 25. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.11.012

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Collingwood, James ; Wright, Mike ; Brooks, Roger. / Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame. In: European Journal of Operational Research. 2023 ; Vol. 309, No. 3. pp. 1286-1299.

Bibtex

@article{1fa61fb849894d81bcb57465a0b2594c,
title = "Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame",
abstract = "This paper is the first to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model of a snooker frame, using post-match video analysis of over 30,000 shots to inform the probability that a top professional will pot a ball on each shot depending on the number of balls remaining on the table and the status of their current visit to the table. We demonstrate that this accurately reflects the progression of a frame at this level, advocating new approaches in viewing a frame as a succession of scoring visits and in using dynamic measures to evaluate player performance. The simulation model also produces a realistic expectation of the probability that the frame will be won from any given position. The model is then used to analyse the effectiveness of the break-off shot and the influence that this has on the outcome of the frame. We also use simulated outcomes to evaluate the choice between taking on a risky pot or playing safe and the merits of alternative approaches to escaping from a snooker.",
author = "James Collingwood and Mike Wright and Roger Brooks",
year = "2023",
month = sep,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1016/j.ejor.2022.11.012",
language = "English",
volume = "309",
pages = "1286--1299",
journal = "European Journal of Operational Research",
issn = "0377-2217",
publisher = "Elsevier Science B.V.",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame

AU - Collingwood, James

AU - Wright, Mike

AU - Brooks, Roger

PY - 2023/9/16

Y1 - 2023/9/16

N2 - This paper is the first to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model of a snooker frame, using post-match video analysis of over 30,000 shots to inform the probability that a top professional will pot a ball on each shot depending on the number of balls remaining on the table and the status of their current visit to the table. We demonstrate that this accurately reflects the progression of a frame at this level, advocating new approaches in viewing a frame as a succession of scoring visits and in using dynamic measures to evaluate player performance. The simulation model also produces a realistic expectation of the probability that the frame will be won from any given position. The model is then used to analyse the effectiveness of the break-off shot and the influence that this has on the outcome of the frame. We also use simulated outcomes to evaluate the choice between taking on a risky pot or playing safe and the merits of alternative approaches to escaping from a snooker.

AB - This paper is the first to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model of a snooker frame, using post-match video analysis of over 30,000 shots to inform the probability that a top professional will pot a ball on each shot depending on the number of balls remaining on the table and the status of their current visit to the table. We demonstrate that this accurately reflects the progression of a frame at this level, advocating new approaches in viewing a frame as a succession of scoring visits and in using dynamic measures to evaluate player performance. The simulation model also produces a realistic expectation of the probability that the frame will be won from any given position. The model is then used to analyse the effectiveness of the break-off shot and the influence that this has on the outcome of the frame. We also use simulated outcomes to evaluate the choice between taking on a risky pot or playing safe and the merits of alternative approaches to escaping from a snooker.

U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.11.012

DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.11.012

M3 - Journal article

VL - 309

SP - 1286

EP - 1299

JO - European Journal of Operational Research

JF - European Journal of Operational Research

SN - 0377-2217

IS - 3

ER -