Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Some implications of a quartic loss function
AU - Aretz, Kevin
AU - Peel, David
PY - 2007/8/20
Y1 - 2007/8/20
N2 - Motivated by a central banker with a symmetric but non-quadratic loss function, we show in this note that the approximations of two plausible loss functions of this type will include a quartic term. For skewed distributions, we establish that such a loss function implies a systematic inflation bias even when the bank targets the natural rate. Moreover, we show that the weights in an optimal combination of forecasts will differ from that under quadratic loss. We illustrate these differences using simulated data and data from the Livingston Surveys of Professional Forecasters.
AB - Motivated by a central banker with a symmetric but non-quadratic loss function, we show in this note that the approximations of two plausible loss functions of this type will include a quartic term. For skewed distributions, we establish that such a loss function implies a systematic inflation bias even when the bank targets the natural rate. Moreover, we show that the weights in an optimal combination of forecasts will differ from that under quadratic loss. We illustrate these differences using simulated data and data from the Livingston Surveys of Professional Forecasters.
M3 - Journal article
VL - 7
SP - 1
EP - 7
JO - Economics Bulletin
JF - Economics Bulletin
SN - 1545-2921
IS - 13
ER -