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  • PavlidisP2020_JIMF_Final

    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of International Money and Finance. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of International Money and Finance, 109, 2020 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102222

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    Available under license: CC BY-NC-ND: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License

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Speculative Bubbles in Segmented Markets: Evidence from Chinese Cross-Listed Stocks

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
Article number102222
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>1/12/2020
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of International Money and Finance
Volume109
Number of pages21
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date3/07/20
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

We propose a novel approach for testing for speculative bubbles in segmented capital markets. The basic idea is that, under capital controls, heterogeneity of speculative expectations across international equity markets causes financial assets with identical cash flow promises to trade at different prices. Because these deviations from the law of one price inherit the properties of the speculative bubble process, they display periods of explosive dynamics and have predictive power for future movements in equity prices in sample. These two hypotheses can be examined empirically using sequential unit root tests and predictive regressions. An attractive feature of this approach for bubble detection is that it does not require the specification of a model for market fundamentals, thus mitigating the well-known joint hypothesis problem. The focus of the paper is on mainland Chinese companies that cross list shares in Hong Kong. China is an ideal setting for our analysis because of the significant restrictions on capital movements imposed by the authorities and the turbulent behaviour of its stock market over the last decades.

Bibliographic note

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of International Money and Finance. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of International Money and Finance, 109, 2020 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102222