Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Statistical models for spatially explicit biological data
AU - Rogers, David J.
AU - Sedda, Luigi
PY - 2012/12
Y1 - 2012/12
N2 - Existing algorithms for predicting species' distributions sit on a continuum between purely statistical and purely biological approaches. Most of the existing algorithms are aspatial because they do not consider the spatial context, the occurrence of the species or conditions conducive to the species' existence, in neighbouring areas. The geostatistical techniques of kriging and cokriging are presented in an attempt to encourage biologists more frequently to consider them. Unlike deterministic spatial techniques they provide estimates of prediction errors. The assumptions and applications of common geostatistical techniques are presented with worked examples drawn from a dataset of the bluetongue outbreak in northwest Europe in 2006. Emphasis is placed on the importance and interpretation of weights in geostatistical calculations. Covarying environmental data may be used to improve predictions of species' distributions, but only if their sampling frequency is greater than that of the species' or disease data. Cokriging techniques are unable to determine the biological significance or importance of such environmental data, because they are not designed to do so.
AB - Existing algorithms for predicting species' distributions sit on a continuum between purely statistical and purely biological approaches. Most of the existing algorithms are aspatial because they do not consider the spatial context, the occurrence of the species or conditions conducive to the species' existence, in neighbouring areas. The geostatistical techniques of kriging and cokriging are presented in an attempt to encourage biologists more frequently to consider them. Unlike deterministic spatial techniques they provide estimates of prediction errors. The assumptions and applications of common geostatistical techniques are presented with worked examples drawn from a dataset of the bluetongue outbreak in northwest Europe in 2006. Emphasis is placed on the importance and interpretation of weights in geostatistical calculations. Covarying environmental data may be used to improve predictions of species' distributions, but only if their sampling frequency is greater than that of the species' or disease data. Cokriging techniques are unable to determine the biological significance or importance of such environmental data, because they are not designed to do so.
KW - Species' distribution models
KW - kriging
KW - cokriging
KW - variograms
KW - bluetongue
KW - SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS
KW - BLUETONGUE VIRUS SEROTYPE-8
KW - NORTH-WESTERN EUROPE
KW - GEOSTATISTICAL APPROACH
KW - DISEASE
KW - DISTRIBUTIONS
KW - VARIOGRAM
KW - ACCURACY
KW - EPIDEMIC
KW - ECOLOGY
U2 - 10.1017/S0031182012001345
DO - 10.1017/S0031182012001345
M3 - Journal article
VL - 139
SP - 1852
EP - 1869
JO - Parasitology
JF - Parasitology
SN - 0031-1820
IS - 14
ER -