Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics
AU - Nova, Nicole
AU - Deyle, Ethan R.
AU - Shocket, Marta S.
AU - MacDonald, Andrew J.
AU - Childs, Marissa L.
AU - Rypdal, Martin
AU - Sugihara, George
AU - Mordecai, Erin A.
PY - 2021/3/31
Y1 - 2021/3/31
N2 - Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analyzing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modeling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects, respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear, and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature, and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.
AB - Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analyzing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modeling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects, respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear, and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature, and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.
U2 - 10.1111/ele.13652
DO - 10.1111/ele.13652
M3 - Journal article
VL - 24
SP - 415
EP - 425
JO - Ecology Letters
JF - Ecology Letters
SN - 1461-023X
IS - 3
ER -