Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Terrestrial carbon sequestration under future c...

Links

Text available via DOI:

View graph of relations

Terrestrial carbon sequestration under future climate, nutrient and land use change and management scenarios: a national-scale UK case study

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published

Standard

Terrestrial carbon sequestration under future climate, nutrient and land use change and management scenarios: a national-scale UK case study. / Davies, Jessica; Yumashev, Dmitry; Janes-Bassett, Victoria et al.
In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 17, No. 11, 114054, 15.11.2022.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

APA

Vancouver

Author

Bibtex

@article{54e9c4e729034cf9a4af33b8b0f4c747,
title = "Terrestrial carbon sequestration under future climate, nutrient and land use change and management scenarios: a national-scale UK case study",
abstract = "Carbon sequestration (Cseq) in soils and plant biomass is viewed as an important means of mitigating climate change. Recent global assessments have estimated considerable potential for terrestrial Cseq, but generally lack sensitivity to climate warming, nutrient limitations and perspective on local land use. These are important factors since higher temperatures can accelerate the decomposition of soil organic matter, nutrient availability affects plant productivity, while land use pressures put broader constraints on terrestrial organic matter inputs and storage. Here, we explore the potential for Cseq under changing land use, climate and nutrient conditions in a UK-based national scale case study. We apply an integrated terrestrial C–N–P cycle model with representative ranges of high-resolution climate and land use scenarios to estimate Cseq potential across the UK. If realistic UK targets for grassland restoration and afforestation over the next 30 years are met, we estimate that an additional 120 TgC could be sequestered by 2100 (similar to current annual UK greenhouse gas emissions or roughly 7% of net emission cuts needed in meeting net zero), conditional on climate change of <2 °C. Conversely, we estimate that UK arable expansion would reduce terrestrial carbon storage by a similar magnitude. The most pessimistic climate trajectories are predicted to cause net losses in UK soil carbon storage under all land use scenarios. Warmer climates substantially reduce the potential total terrestrial carbon storage gains offered by afforestation and grassland restoration. We conclude that although concerted land use change could make an important moderate contribution to national level Cseq for countries like the UK, soil Cseq only provides a contribution if we are on a low emission pathway, and is therefore conditional on deep global cuts to emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and soil degradation.",
author = "Jessica Davies and Dmitry Yumashev and Victoria Janes-Bassett and Redhead, {John W.} and Rowe, {Ed C} and Jessica Davies",
year = "2022",
month = nov,
day = "15",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/aca037",
language = "English",
volume = "17",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing Ltd",
number = "11",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Terrestrial carbon sequestration under future climate, nutrient and land use change and management scenarios: a national-scale UK case study

AU - Davies, Jessica

AU - Yumashev, Dmitry

AU - Janes-Bassett, Victoria

AU - Redhead, John W.

AU - Rowe, Ed C

AU - Davies, Jessica

PY - 2022/11/15

Y1 - 2022/11/15

N2 - Carbon sequestration (Cseq) in soils and plant biomass is viewed as an important means of mitigating climate change. Recent global assessments have estimated considerable potential for terrestrial Cseq, but generally lack sensitivity to climate warming, nutrient limitations and perspective on local land use. These are important factors since higher temperatures can accelerate the decomposition of soil organic matter, nutrient availability affects plant productivity, while land use pressures put broader constraints on terrestrial organic matter inputs and storage. Here, we explore the potential for Cseq under changing land use, climate and nutrient conditions in a UK-based national scale case study. We apply an integrated terrestrial C–N–P cycle model with representative ranges of high-resolution climate and land use scenarios to estimate Cseq potential across the UK. If realistic UK targets for grassland restoration and afforestation over the next 30 years are met, we estimate that an additional 120 TgC could be sequestered by 2100 (similar to current annual UK greenhouse gas emissions or roughly 7% of net emission cuts needed in meeting net zero), conditional on climate change of <2 °C. Conversely, we estimate that UK arable expansion would reduce terrestrial carbon storage by a similar magnitude. The most pessimistic climate trajectories are predicted to cause net losses in UK soil carbon storage under all land use scenarios. Warmer climates substantially reduce the potential total terrestrial carbon storage gains offered by afforestation and grassland restoration. We conclude that although concerted land use change could make an important moderate contribution to national level Cseq for countries like the UK, soil Cseq only provides a contribution if we are on a low emission pathway, and is therefore conditional on deep global cuts to emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and soil degradation.

AB - Carbon sequestration (Cseq) in soils and plant biomass is viewed as an important means of mitigating climate change. Recent global assessments have estimated considerable potential for terrestrial Cseq, but generally lack sensitivity to climate warming, nutrient limitations and perspective on local land use. These are important factors since higher temperatures can accelerate the decomposition of soil organic matter, nutrient availability affects plant productivity, while land use pressures put broader constraints on terrestrial organic matter inputs and storage. Here, we explore the potential for Cseq under changing land use, climate and nutrient conditions in a UK-based national scale case study. We apply an integrated terrestrial C–N–P cycle model with representative ranges of high-resolution climate and land use scenarios to estimate Cseq potential across the UK. If realistic UK targets for grassland restoration and afforestation over the next 30 years are met, we estimate that an additional 120 TgC could be sequestered by 2100 (similar to current annual UK greenhouse gas emissions or roughly 7% of net emission cuts needed in meeting net zero), conditional on climate change of <2 °C. Conversely, we estimate that UK arable expansion would reduce terrestrial carbon storage by a similar magnitude. The most pessimistic climate trajectories are predicted to cause net losses in UK soil carbon storage under all land use scenarios. Warmer climates substantially reduce the potential total terrestrial carbon storage gains offered by afforestation and grassland restoration. We conclude that although concerted land use change could make an important moderate contribution to national level Cseq for countries like the UK, soil Cseq only provides a contribution if we are on a low emission pathway, and is therefore conditional on deep global cuts to emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and soil degradation.

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/aca037

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aca037

M3 - Journal article

VL - 17

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 11

M1 - 114054

ER -