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The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure

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The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure. / Boylan, John; Syntetos, A. A.
In: International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 107, No. 2, 01.06.2007, p. 511-517.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Boylan, J & Syntetos, AA 2007, 'The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure', International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 107, no. 2, pp. 511-517. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.10.005

APA

Boylan, J., & Syntetos, A. A. (2007). The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure. International Journal of Production Economics, 107(2), 511-517. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.10.005

Vancouver

Boylan J, Syntetos AA. The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure. International Journal of Production Economics. 2007 Jun 1;107(2):511-517. doi: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.10.005

Author

Boylan, John ; Syntetos, A. A. / The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure. In: International Journal of Production Economics. 2007 ; Vol. 107, No. 2. pp. 511-517.

Bibtex

@article{2de0934750fd4e5a9a4bafcc14eb1611,
title = "The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure",
abstract = "A modified Croston procedure to forecast intermittent demand is reviewed. The modified procedure, published in this journal in 2004, consists of a new method for estimating the mean demand and a smoothing method for estimating the variance of the forecasted demand rate. It is found that the smoothed variance estimate is based on an invalid measure of forecast accuracy. Moreover, it is shown that the method of forecasting mean demand produces biased forecasts. The accuracy of this method is assessed, using simulated data and the mean square error measure, and compared with Croston's method and single exponential smoothing. It is found that Croston's method is generally more accurate than its modification, particularly for strongly intermittent series.",
keywords = "Intermittent demand, Inventory , forecasting, Croston's method, Error measures",
author = "John Boylan and Syntetos, {A. A.}",
note = " Accepted 25/10/2006",
year = "2007",
month = jun,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.10.005",
language = "English",
volume = "107",
pages = "511--517",
journal = "International Journal of Production Economics",
issn = "0925-5273",
publisher = "Elsevier Science B.V.",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure

AU - Boylan, John

AU - Syntetos, A. A.

N1 - Accepted 25/10/2006

PY - 2007/6/1

Y1 - 2007/6/1

N2 - A modified Croston procedure to forecast intermittent demand is reviewed. The modified procedure, published in this journal in 2004, consists of a new method for estimating the mean demand and a smoothing method for estimating the variance of the forecasted demand rate. It is found that the smoothed variance estimate is based on an invalid measure of forecast accuracy. Moreover, it is shown that the method of forecasting mean demand produces biased forecasts. The accuracy of this method is assessed, using simulated data and the mean square error measure, and compared with Croston's method and single exponential smoothing. It is found that Croston's method is generally more accurate than its modification, particularly for strongly intermittent series.

AB - A modified Croston procedure to forecast intermittent demand is reviewed. The modified procedure, published in this journal in 2004, consists of a new method for estimating the mean demand and a smoothing method for estimating the variance of the forecasted demand rate. It is found that the smoothed variance estimate is based on an invalid measure of forecast accuracy. Moreover, it is shown that the method of forecasting mean demand produces biased forecasts. The accuracy of this method is assessed, using simulated data and the mean square error measure, and compared with Croston's method and single exponential smoothing. It is found that Croston's method is generally more accurate than its modification, particularly for strongly intermittent series.

KW - Intermittent demand

KW - Inventory

KW - forecasting

KW - Croston's method

KW - Error measures

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.10.005

DO - 10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.10.005

M3 - Journal article

VL - 107

SP - 511

EP - 517

JO - International Journal of Production Economics

JF - International Journal of Production Economics

SN - 0925-5273

IS - 2

ER -