Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The Bounds of Cognitive Heuristic Performance on the Geographic Profiling Task
AU - Taylor, Paul J.
AU - Bennell, Craig
AU - Snook, Brent
PY - 2009/4
Y1 - 2009/4
N2 - Human performance on the geographic profiling task-where the goal is to predict an offender's home location from their crime locations-has been shown to equal that of complex actuarial methods when it is based oil appropriate heuristics. However, this evidence is derived front comparisons of 'X-marks-the-spot' predictions, which ignore the fact that sonic algorithms provide a prioritization of the offender's area of spatial activity. Using search area as a measure of performance, we examine the predictions of students (N=200) and an actuarial method under three levels of information load and two levels of heuristic-environment fit. Results show that the actuarial method produces a smaller search area than a concentric search outward from Students' 'X-marks-the-spot' predictions, but that students are able to produce search areas that are smaller than those provided by the actuarial method. Students' performance did not decrease under greater information load and was not improved by adding a descriptive qualifier to the taught heuristic. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
AB - Human performance on the geographic profiling task-where the goal is to predict an offender's home location from their crime locations-has been shown to equal that of complex actuarial methods when it is based oil appropriate heuristics. However, this evidence is derived front comparisons of 'X-marks-the-spot' predictions, which ignore the fact that sonic algorithms provide a prioritization of the offender's area of spatial activity. Using search area as a measure of performance, we examine the predictions of students (N=200) and an actuarial method under three levels of information load and two levels of heuristic-environment fit. Results show that the actuarial method produces a smaller search area than a concentric search outward from Students' 'X-marks-the-spot' predictions, but that students are able to produce search areas that are smaller than those provided by the actuarial method. Students' performance did not decrease under greater information load and was not improved by adding a descriptive qualifier to the taught heuristic. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KW - DECISION-MAKING
KW - INFORMATION
KW - FRUGAL
KW - HOME
KW - PRIORITIZATION
KW - ATTENTION
KW - CHOICE
U2 - 10.1002/acp.1469
DO - 10.1002/acp.1469
M3 - Journal article
VL - 23
SP - 410
EP - 430
JO - Applied Cognitive Psychology
JF - Applied Cognitive Psychology
SN - 0888-4080
IS - 3
ER -