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    Rights statement: © Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

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The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts. / Jarvis, Andrew; Hewitt, C. N.
In: Earth System Dynamics Discussions, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2014, p. 1143-1158.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Jarvis, A & Hewitt, CN 2014, 'The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts', Earth System Dynamics Discussions, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 1143-1158. https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014

APA

Jarvis, A., & Hewitt, C. N. (2014). The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 5(2), 1143-1158. https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014

Vancouver

Jarvis A, Hewitt CN. The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts. Earth System Dynamics Discussions. 2014;5(2):1143-1158. doi: 10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014

Author

Jarvis, Andrew ; Hewitt, C. N. / The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts. In: Earth System Dynamics Discussions. 2014 ; Vol. 5, No. 2. pp. 1143-1158.

Bibtex

@article{a2db0434906a4a05b46d3b4781f6816a,
title = "The {"}Business-As-Usual{"} growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts",
abstract = "We analyse the global primary energy use and total CO2 emissions time series since 1850 and show that their relative growth rates appear to exhibit periodicity with a fundamental timescale of ~60 years and with significant harmonic behaviour. Quantifying the inertia inherent in these dynamics allows forecasting of future {"}business as usual{"} energy needs and their associated CO2 emissions. Our best estimates for 2020 are 800 EJ yr−1 for global energy use and 14 Gt yr−1 for global CO2 emissions, with both being above almost all other published forecasts. This suggests the energy and total CO2 emissions landscape in 2020 may be significantly more challenging than currently envisaged.",
author = "Andrew Jarvis and Hewitt, {C. N.}",
note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
pages = "1143--1158",
journal = "Earth System Dynamics Discussions",
publisher = "Copernicus Publications",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts

AU - Jarvis, Andrew

AU - Hewitt, C. N.

N1 - © Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - We analyse the global primary energy use and total CO2 emissions time series since 1850 and show that their relative growth rates appear to exhibit periodicity with a fundamental timescale of ~60 years and with significant harmonic behaviour. Quantifying the inertia inherent in these dynamics allows forecasting of future "business as usual" energy needs and their associated CO2 emissions. Our best estimates for 2020 are 800 EJ yr−1 for global energy use and 14 Gt yr−1 for global CO2 emissions, with both being above almost all other published forecasts. This suggests the energy and total CO2 emissions landscape in 2020 may be significantly more challenging than currently envisaged.

AB - We analyse the global primary energy use and total CO2 emissions time series since 1850 and show that their relative growth rates appear to exhibit periodicity with a fundamental timescale of ~60 years and with significant harmonic behaviour. Quantifying the inertia inherent in these dynamics allows forecasting of future "business as usual" energy needs and their associated CO2 emissions. Our best estimates for 2020 are 800 EJ yr−1 for global energy use and 14 Gt yr−1 for global CO2 emissions, with both being above almost all other published forecasts. This suggests the energy and total CO2 emissions landscape in 2020 may be significantly more challenging than currently envisaged.

U2 - 10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014

DO - 10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014

M3 - Journal article

VL - 5

SP - 1143

EP - 1158

JO - Earth System Dynamics Discussions

JF - Earth System Dynamics Discussions

IS - 2

ER -