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The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts

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The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts. / Syntetos, Aris A.; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Boylan, John et al.
In: International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 118, No. 1, 2009, p. 72-81.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Syntetos, AA, Nikolopoulos, K, Boylan, J, Fildes, R & Goodwin, P 2009, 'The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts', International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 118, no. 1, pp. 72-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.011

APA

Syntetos, A. A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J., Fildes, R., & Goodwin, P. (2009). The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts. International Journal of Production Economics, 118(1), 72-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.011

Vancouver

Syntetos AA, Nikolopoulos K, Boylan J, Fildes R, Goodwin P. The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts. International Journal of Production Economics. 2009;118(1):72-81. doi: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.011

Author

Syntetos, Aris A. ; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos ; Boylan, John et al. / The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts. In: International Journal of Production Economics. 2009 ; Vol. 118, No. 1. pp. 72-81.

Bibtex

@article{a838ad49dbb441868e5fa7c08beb2ada,
title = "The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts",
abstract = "Empirical research suggests that quantitatively derived forecasts are very frequently judgementally adjusted. Nevertheless, little work has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these judgemental adjustments in a practical demand/sales context. In addition, the relevant analysis does not distinguish between slow and fast moving items. Currently, there are neither conceptual developments nor empirical evidence on the issue of integrating judgements and statistical forecasts for slow/intermittent demand items. Moreover, no results have ever been reported on the stock control implications of these human judgements. Our work analyses monthly intermittent demand forecasts for the UK branch of a major international pharmaceutical company. The company relies upon a commercially available statistical forecasting system to produce forecasts that are subsequently judgementally adjusted based on marketing intelligence gathered by the company forecasters. The benefits of the intervention are evaluated by comparing the actual sales to system and final forecasts using both forecast accuracy and inventory control (accuracy implication) metrics. Our study allows insights to be gained on potential improvements to intermittent demand forecasting processes and, subsequently, the design effectiveness of forecasting support systems.",
author = "Syntetos, {Aris A.} and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and John Boylan and Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin",
year = "2009",
doi = "10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.011",
language = "English",
volume = "118",
pages = "72--81",
journal = "International Journal of Production Economics",
issn = "0925-5273",
publisher = "Elsevier Science B.V.",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts

AU - Syntetos, Aris A.

AU - Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos

AU - Boylan, John

AU - Fildes, Robert

AU - Goodwin, Paul

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - Empirical research suggests that quantitatively derived forecasts are very frequently judgementally adjusted. Nevertheless, little work has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these judgemental adjustments in a practical demand/sales context. In addition, the relevant analysis does not distinguish between slow and fast moving items. Currently, there are neither conceptual developments nor empirical evidence on the issue of integrating judgements and statistical forecasts for slow/intermittent demand items. Moreover, no results have ever been reported on the stock control implications of these human judgements. Our work analyses monthly intermittent demand forecasts for the UK branch of a major international pharmaceutical company. The company relies upon a commercially available statistical forecasting system to produce forecasts that are subsequently judgementally adjusted based on marketing intelligence gathered by the company forecasters. The benefits of the intervention are evaluated by comparing the actual sales to system and final forecasts using both forecast accuracy and inventory control (accuracy implication) metrics. Our study allows insights to be gained on potential improvements to intermittent demand forecasting processes and, subsequently, the design effectiveness of forecasting support systems.

AB - Empirical research suggests that quantitatively derived forecasts are very frequently judgementally adjusted. Nevertheless, little work has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these judgemental adjustments in a practical demand/sales context. In addition, the relevant analysis does not distinguish between slow and fast moving items. Currently, there are neither conceptual developments nor empirical evidence on the issue of integrating judgements and statistical forecasts for slow/intermittent demand items. Moreover, no results have ever been reported on the stock control implications of these human judgements. Our work analyses monthly intermittent demand forecasts for the UK branch of a major international pharmaceutical company. The company relies upon a commercially available statistical forecasting system to produce forecasts that are subsequently judgementally adjusted based on marketing intelligence gathered by the company forecasters. The benefits of the intervention are evaluated by comparing the actual sales to system and final forecasts using both forecast accuracy and inventory control (accuracy implication) metrics. Our study allows insights to be gained on potential improvements to intermittent demand forecasting processes and, subsequently, the design effectiveness of forecasting support systems.

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.011

DO - 10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.011

M3 - Journal article

VL - 118

SP - 72

EP - 81

JO - International Journal of Production Economics

JF - International Journal of Production Economics

SN - 0925-5273

IS - 1

ER -