TY - BOOK

T1 - The global economic impacts from permafrost thawing in the Arctic region

AU - Alvarez, Jimena

PY - 2023/7/26

Y1 - 2023/7/26

N2 - The Arctic is warming at more than double the global average. Thishas resulted in physical impacts in the region including the melting ofperennially frozen ground (permafrost) which holds almost twice thecarbon in the atmosphere.Permafrost thawing is not explicitly modelled in most of the latestclimate models, which informs the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Hence, the temperatureprojections from AR6 which are extensively used to inform policymakersand stakeholders in the public and private sector, could underestimatethe projected physical and economic impacts.This thesis makes three contributions. First, it introduces a frameworkfor assessing the global economic impacts from climate change in theArctic region. Second, it describes PAGE22, an integrated assessmentmodel which was developed to incorporate a permafrost carbonemulator and the persistent effects of temperature on economicproduction. The latter is complementary to the PAGE-ICE IAM whichonly includes level effects and smaller economic damage estimates thanPAGE22. Third, it describes PAGE22-SCCO2, another version ofPAGE22 to estimate the social cost of carbon dioxide - used as a proxyfor carbon tax in policy.The permafrost carbon feedback modelled in PAGE22 increases themean temperature values in 2300 by 0.17-0.38 °C and the social cost ofcarbon dioxide by 2-9% under the SSPX-RCPY scenarios. The persistenteffects of temperature on economic production increase the mean globalimpacts in 2200 from 1-53 USD trill. to 104-1,000 USD trill. and the socialcost of carbon dioxide in 2020 up to almost 9 times under the SSPXRCPY scenarios.Through these contributions, this thesis expands the body of literatureon climate change economic impacts. The tools developed can be usedto assess how the physical impacts from climate change in the Arctic andbeyond can translate into regional and global economic impacts.

AB - The Arctic is warming at more than double the global average. Thishas resulted in physical impacts in the region including the melting ofperennially frozen ground (permafrost) which holds almost twice thecarbon in the atmosphere.Permafrost thawing is not explicitly modelled in most of the latestclimate models, which informs the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Hence, the temperatureprojections from AR6 which are extensively used to inform policymakersand stakeholders in the public and private sector, could underestimatethe projected physical and economic impacts.This thesis makes three contributions. First, it introduces a frameworkfor assessing the global economic impacts from climate change in theArctic region. Second, it describes PAGE22, an integrated assessmentmodel which was developed to incorporate a permafrost carbonemulator and the persistent effects of temperature on economicproduction. The latter is complementary to the PAGE-ICE IAM whichonly includes level effects and smaller economic damage estimates thanPAGE22. Third, it describes PAGE22-SCCO2, another version ofPAGE22 to estimate the social cost of carbon dioxide - used as a proxyfor carbon tax in policy.The permafrost carbon feedback modelled in PAGE22 increases themean temperature values in 2300 by 0.17-0.38 °C and the social cost ofcarbon dioxide by 2-9% under the SSPX-RCPY scenarios. The persistenteffects of temperature on economic production increase the mean globalimpacts in 2200 from 1-53 USD trill. to 104-1,000 USD trill. and the socialcost of carbon dioxide in 2020 up to almost 9 times under the SSPXRCPY scenarios.Through these contributions, this thesis expands the body of literatureon climate change economic impacts. The tools developed can be usedto assess how the physical impacts from climate change in the Arctic andbeyond can translate into regional and global economic impacts.

U2 - 10.17635/lancaster/thesis/2043

DO - 10.17635/lancaster/thesis/2043

M3 - Doctoral Thesis

PB - Lancaster University

ER -