Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on t...

Electronic data

  • Paper_EJOR_v4

    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 283, 1, 2020 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.10.031

    Accepted author manuscript, 652 KB, PDF document

    Available under license: CC BY-NC-ND: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License

Links

Text available via DOI:

View graph of relations

The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published

Standard

The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect. / Pastore, E.; Alfieri, A.; Zotteri, G. et al.
In: European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 283, No. 1, 16.05.2020, p. 94-107.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Pastore, E, Alfieri, A, Zotteri, G & Boylan, JE 2020, 'The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect', European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 283, no. 1, pp. 94-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.10.031

APA

Pastore, E., Alfieri, A., Zotteri, G., & Boylan, J. E. (2020). The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect. European Journal of Operational Research, 283(1), 94-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.10.031

Vancouver

Pastore E, Alfieri A, Zotteri G, Boylan JE. The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect. European Journal of Operational Research. 2020 May 16;283(1):94-107. Epub 2019 Oct 30. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.10.031

Author

Pastore, E. ; Alfieri, A. ; Zotteri, G. et al. / The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect. In: European Journal of Operational Research. 2020 ; Vol. 283, No. 1. pp. 94-107.

Bibtex

@article{5121c386771945919c6d2a3362ccff01,
title = "The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect",
abstract = "The bullwhip effect is a very important issue for supply chains, impacting on costs and effectiveness. Academic researchers have studied this phenomenon and modelled it analytically, showing that it affects many real world industries. The analytical models generally assume that the final demand process and its parameters are known. This paper studies a two-echelon single-product supply chain with final demand distributed according to a known AR(1) process but with unknown parameters. The results show that the bullwhip effect is affected by unknown parameters and is influenced by the frequency with which parameter estimates are updated. For unknown parameters, the strength of the bullwhip effect is also influenced by the number of demand observations available to estimate the parameters. Furthermore, a negative autoregressive parameter does not always imply an anti-bullwhip effect when the parameters are unknown. An analytical approximation is proposed to mitigate the poor accuracy of existing models when the parameters of an AR(1) process are unknown, forecasts are updated but parameter estimates remain unchanged.",
keywords = "Inventory, Supply chain management, Bullwhip effect, Demand variability",
author = "E. Pastore and A. Alfieri and G. Zotteri and J.E. Boylan",
note = "This is the author{\textquoteright}s version of a work that was accepted for publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 283, 1, 2020 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.10.031",
year = "2020",
month = may,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1016/j.ejor.2019.10.031",
language = "English",
volume = "283",
pages = "94--107",
journal = "European Journal of Operational Research",
issn = "0377-2217",
publisher = "Elsevier Science B.V.",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect

AU - Pastore, E.

AU - Alfieri, A.

AU - Zotteri, G.

AU - Boylan, J.E.

N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 283, 1, 2020 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.10.031

PY - 2020/5/16

Y1 - 2020/5/16

N2 - The bullwhip effect is a very important issue for supply chains, impacting on costs and effectiveness. Academic researchers have studied this phenomenon and modelled it analytically, showing that it affects many real world industries. The analytical models generally assume that the final demand process and its parameters are known. This paper studies a two-echelon single-product supply chain with final demand distributed according to a known AR(1) process but with unknown parameters. The results show that the bullwhip effect is affected by unknown parameters and is influenced by the frequency with which parameter estimates are updated. For unknown parameters, the strength of the bullwhip effect is also influenced by the number of demand observations available to estimate the parameters. Furthermore, a negative autoregressive parameter does not always imply an anti-bullwhip effect when the parameters are unknown. An analytical approximation is proposed to mitigate the poor accuracy of existing models when the parameters of an AR(1) process are unknown, forecasts are updated but parameter estimates remain unchanged.

AB - The bullwhip effect is a very important issue for supply chains, impacting on costs and effectiveness. Academic researchers have studied this phenomenon and modelled it analytically, showing that it affects many real world industries. The analytical models generally assume that the final demand process and its parameters are known. This paper studies a two-echelon single-product supply chain with final demand distributed according to a known AR(1) process but with unknown parameters. The results show that the bullwhip effect is affected by unknown parameters and is influenced by the frequency with which parameter estimates are updated. For unknown parameters, the strength of the bullwhip effect is also influenced by the number of demand observations available to estimate the parameters. Furthermore, a negative autoregressive parameter does not always imply an anti-bullwhip effect when the parameters are unknown. An analytical approximation is proposed to mitigate the poor accuracy of existing models when the parameters of an AR(1) process are unknown, forecasts are updated but parameter estimates remain unchanged.

KW - Inventory

KW - Supply chain management

KW - Bullwhip effect

KW - Demand variability

U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.10.031

DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.10.031

M3 - Journal article

VL - 283

SP - 94

EP - 107

JO - European Journal of Operational Research

JF - European Journal of Operational Research

SN - 0377-2217

IS - 1

ER -