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The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on Global Financial Markets

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

  • Marwan Izzeldin
  • Gulnur Muradoglu
  • Vasileios Pappas
  • Athina Petropoulou
  • Sheeja Sivaprasad
Article number102598
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>31/05/2023
<mark>Journal</mark>International Review of Financial Analysis
Number of pages13
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date22/02/23
<mark>Original language</mark>English


On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine. In this paper, we analyze the response of European and global stock markets alongside a representative sample of commodities. We compare the war response against the recent Covid-19 pandemic and the not-too-distant 2008 global financial crisis. Applying a Markov-switching HAR model on volatility proxies, estimates are made of synchronization, duration and intensity measures for each event. In broad terms, stock markets and commodities respond most rapidly to the Russian invasion; and post-invasion crisis intensity is noticeably smaller compared to both the Covid-19 and the GFC. Wheat and nickel are the most affected commodities due to the prominent exporter status of the two countries.