Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Banking and Finance. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Banking and Finance, 106, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.bankfin.2019.07.021
Accepted author manuscript, 575 KB, PDF document
Available under license: CC BY-NC-ND
Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The information content of forward moments
AU - Andreou, Panayiotis C.
AU - Kagkadis, Anastasios
AU - Philip, Dennis
AU - Taamouti, Abderrahim
N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Banking and Finance. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Banking and Finance, 106, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.bankfin.2019.07.021
PY - 2019/9/1
Y1 - 2019/9/1
N2 - We estimate the term structures of risk-neutral forward variance and skewness, and examine their predictive power for equity market excess returns and variance. We use Partial Least Squares to extract a single predictive factor from each term structure that is motivated by the theoretical implications of affine no-arbitrage models. The empirical analysis shows that an increased forward variance factor, FVF (forward skewness factor, FSF) corresponds to a more negatively sloped forward variance (more U-shaped forward skewness) term structure, and significantly forecasts higher future market excess returns and variance. More importantly, FSF exhibits predictive power for market returns that is stronger than, and incremental to, that provided by FVF. However, it does not outperform FVF in terms of excess variance predictability.
AB - We estimate the term structures of risk-neutral forward variance and skewness, and examine their predictive power for equity market excess returns and variance. We use Partial Least Squares to extract a single predictive factor from each term structure that is motivated by the theoretical implications of affine no-arbitrage models. The empirical analysis shows that an increased forward variance factor, FVF (forward skewness factor, FSF) corresponds to a more negatively sloped forward variance (more U-shaped forward skewness) term structure, and significantly forecasts higher future market excess returns and variance. More importantly, FSF exhibits predictive power for market returns that is stronger than, and incremental to, that provided by FVF. However, it does not outperform FVF in terms of excess variance predictability.
KW - Forward moments
KW - Implied volatility surface
KW - Partial least squares
KW - Predictability of stock returns
KW - Equity premium
KW - Variance premium
U2 - 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.07.021
DO - 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.07.021
M3 - Journal article
VL - 106
SP - 527
EP - 541
JO - Journal of Banking and Finance
JF - Journal of Banking and Finance
SN - 0378-4266
ER -