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The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies

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The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies. / Brooks-Pollock, E.; Read, J.M.; House, T. et al.
In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 376, No. 1829, 20200273, 19.07.2021.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Brooks-Pollock, E, Read, JM, House, T, Medley, GF, Keeling, MJ & Danon, L 2021, 'The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies', Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 376, no. 1829, 20200273. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0273

APA

Brooks-Pollock, E., Read, J. M., House, T., Medley, G. F., Keeling, M. J., & Danon, L. (2021). The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376(1829), Article 20200273. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0273

Vancouver

Brooks-Pollock E, Read JM, House T, Medley GF, Keeling MJ, Danon L. The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2021 Jul 19;376(1829):20200273. Epub 2021 May 31. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0273

Author

Brooks-Pollock, E. ; Read, J.M. ; House, T. et al. / The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies. In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2021 ; Vol. 376, No. 1829.

Bibtex

@article{51b66b8a2ac14fd8a600f021ed13869e,
title = "The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies",
abstract = "Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the basic reproduction number when groups are prevented. Groups of 50+ individuals accounted for 0.5% of reported contact events, and we estimate that the PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 5.4% (95% confidence interval 1.4%, 11.5%). The PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 18.9% (12.7%, 25.7%) and the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 25.2% (19.4%, 31.4%). Under normal circumstances with pre-COVID-19 contact patterns, large groups of individuals have a relatively small epidemiological impact; small- and medium-sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'. {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors.",
keywords = "COVID-19, gatherings, population attributable fraction (PAF), Coronavirus, SARS coronavirus",
author = "E. Brooks-Pollock and J.M. Read and T. House and G.F. Medley and M.J. Keeling and L. Danon",
year = "2021",
month = jul,
day = "19",
doi = "10.1098/rstb.2020.0273",
language = "English",
volume = "376",
journal = "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences",
issn = "0962-8436",
publisher = "Royal Society",
number = "1829",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies

AU - Brooks-Pollock, E.

AU - Read, J.M.

AU - House, T.

AU - Medley, G.F.

AU - Keeling, M.J.

AU - Danon, L.

PY - 2021/7/19

Y1 - 2021/7/19

N2 - Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the basic reproduction number when groups are prevented. Groups of 50+ individuals accounted for 0.5% of reported contact events, and we estimate that the PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 5.4% (95% confidence interval 1.4%, 11.5%). The PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 18.9% (12.7%, 25.7%) and the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 25.2% (19.4%, 31.4%). Under normal circumstances with pre-COVID-19 contact patterns, large groups of individuals have a relatively small epidemiological impact; small- and medium-sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'. © 2021 The Authors.

AB - Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the basic reproduction number when groups are prevented. Groups of 50+ individuals accounted for 0.5% of reported contact events, and we estimate that the PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 5.4% (95% confidence interval 1.4%, 11.5%). The PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 18.9% (12.7%, 25.7%) and the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 25.2% (19.4%, 31.4%). Under normal circumstances with pre-COVID-19 contact patterns, large groups of individuals have a relatively small epidemiological impact; small- and medium-sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'. © 2021 The Authors.

KW - COVID-19

KW - gatherings

KW - population attributable fraction (PAF)

KW - Coronavirus

KW - SARS coronavirus

U2 - 10.1098/rstb.2020.0273

DO - 10.1098/rstb.2020.0273

M3 - Journal article

VL - 376

JO - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

SN - 0962-8436

IS - 1829

M1 - 20200273

ER -